You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
浙商證券:估值歷史低位,催化不斷,看好CXO行情

本文來自:杏林建研 ,作者:浙商醫藥團隊

報吿導讀

2021-2022CXO板塊受政策(醫保談判、CDE、貿易衝突)和投融資影響迎來歷史估值底部,外部催化不斷,內部經營質量和海外大客户認可度持續提升前景下,看好CXO行情。

投資要點

估值底部催化不斷,看好CXO行情

2月11日,博騰股份公吿與輝瑞新簽訂6.81億美金訂單,根據訂單體量我們預計可能為輝瑞新冠治療藥物相關CDMO訂單。2月12日CDE官網公佈附條件批准輝瑞公司新冠病毒治療藥物奈瑪特韋片/利托那韋片組合包裝(即Paxlovid)進口註冊。進行新冠治療藥物及CDMO供應鏈持續迎來重磅利好。

此外:2月13日泰格醫藥公吿將以不高於120.00元/股回購2.5億-5億公司股票,用於後期實施A股股權激勵計劃或A股員工持股計劃。

2021-2022年CXO板塊股價擾動較大:主要是受到以下影響1)政策面:醫保談判、CDE監管政策(《以臨牀價值為導向的抗腫瘤藥物臨牀研發指導原則》)、貿易衝突(美國實體清單擔心、藥明生物被列入UVL清單)。2)投融資:月度波動大,港股出現破發,擔心投融資變差導致CXO新簽訂單下滑。以上擾動下,CXO估值底部逐步顯現,目前CXO板塊普遍處於歷史估值底部,在外部催化不斷,內部經營質量和海外大客户認可度持續提升前景下,看好CXO行情。

看好輝瑞CDMO供應鏈持續超預期可能性

覆盤2021Q4凱萊英和博騰股份陸續公吿與海外大型製藥企業(我們預計是輝瑞新冠治療藥物相關)CDMO大體量訂單分別達到約9億美金和2.14億美金,此次博騰股份進一步追加6.81億美金也彰顯本土CDMO生產能力、質量體系和交付效率等在海外大藥企供應鏈體系中較高認同度。我們看好本土CDMO供應能力獲得海外大客户認可後承接更多海外其他創新藥項目CDMO訂單的可能性,以及在疫情持續未得到有效控制下,本土CDMO供應鏈業績持續超預期可能性。考慮到目前CXO企業估值回落到2019年低位以及業績確定性,重點推薦藥明康德、凱萊英和博騰股份。

抗疫藥物自主化值得重視

雖然輝瑞新冠治療藥物已經在國內附條件上市,但是考慮到海外較高定價(按照海外政府採購金額和採購量推測海外一個療程定價在500美元+)其國內定價或許仍保持高位。目前國內已經建立較強的防控體系,考慮國內新冠治療自主可控藥物治療方案進度顯著,國內新冠特效藥方向值得重點關注。重點關注:君實生物、眾生藥業、廣生堂、以嶺藥業等。參考報吿:《防疫常態化,藥物自主化——新冠治療藥物專題20220124》。

投資建議

重點推薦:有望持續受益輝瑞新冠治療藥物CDMO產業鏈的藥明康德、凱萊英、博騰股份等。估值底部積極進行回購的臨牀CRO龍頭泰格醫藥。估值性價比較高CXO龍頭昭衍新藥、美迪西、藥石科技、九洲藥業等。

重點關注:自主可控新冠治療藥物創新藥企業君實生物、眾生藥業、廣生堂、歌禮制藥等,關注中藥新冠治療方向的以嶺藥業等。

風險提示

國內藥審政策的波動性風險、一級市場投融資週期波動的風險、新業務拓展不及預期風險、匯兑風險、競爭風險、政治風險。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account