《大行報告》大摩升新天綠色能源(00956.HK)目標價至6元 降中廣核新能源(01811.HK)評級至「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指出,2021年可再生能源股股價升40%至560%,跑贏主要光伏股的33%至200%及風力股的30%至194%的升幅,主要由於一次性的事件,如2019年底估值吸引,盈利增長強勁,風力資源強勁及高回報的補貼項目,但有關有利因素或於今年逆轉。
該行稱,去年風能及光伏能安裝安裝量約達100GW,低過2020年的120GW,大部分獨立電力生產商(IRR)指他們去年的安裝量未達標。該行預期風力資源爲5年來最高,料有利的風速將佔2021年發電量增長的20%至30%。
此外,該行認爲綠色電力政策與今年電價值得關注,就發改委去年3月提出對風電/光伏電價草案,拖累相關股份股價下跌超過20%。該行估計,綠色電力政策和2022年風能/太陽能電價制定機制,將是今年相關股價的關鍵驅動因素。雖然預計綠色電力交易將提高可再生能源平均電價,但引入市場機制或將收入可見性由20年降至僅3至5年。
摩根士丹利將新天綠色能源(00956.HK)目標價由4元升至6元,維持「增持」評級,並將中廣核新能源(01811.HK)的目標價由2.85元上調至6元,惟評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」,認爲上述兩股於去年上半年均錄得強勁風力發電及利潤增長良好,料增長勢頭將於去年下半年持續。
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