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中金:料內房去年核心淨利跌5%,華潤置地等股業績或超預期

中金髮表研究報吿表示,其追蹤的中國內地上市房地產開發商2021年核心淨利潤可能按年下降5%,原因是新房銷售及回款表現整體承壓。當中融創中國(1918.HK)、世茂集團(0813.HK)、時代中國(1233.HK)、雅居樂(3383.HK)的業績可能低於預期;建發國際(1908.HK)、中海宏洋(0081.HK)、華潤置地(1109.HK)、越秀地產(0123.HK)、中海外(0688.HK)的業績可能超預期。

該行指,由於行業復甦的時間點和力度尚存不確定性,房企盈利可能仍存向下空間,後續應密切關注2月中下旬至3月“小陽春”房企供應端質與量的恢復,以及需求政策可能的鬆動對購房情緒的提振。考慮到行業前景暫不明朗和三線四檔監管等約束,房企提升拿地強度的意願普遍不強。

該行續指,長期伴隨行業需求中樞下移和投入資本的回報率下降,開發商融資渠道將更加規範透明;而有壓力的公司債務短久期、高成本將成為“新常態”。

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