《大行報告》瑞銀:美將加息 初創車企估值承壓 料小鵬(09868.HK)將成弱勢股
本港上市汽車股今早捱沽,小鵬汽車(09868.HK)-W盤中曾低見123.6元一度挫12.3%,比亞迪(01211.HK)股價亦跌逾7%。瑞銀髮表報告表示,指在美聯儲未來將加息下,料小鵬可能成爲弱勢股票之一。
該行留意到中國汽車製造商(包括電動汽車製造商)由於大多屬淨現金狀態,料人民幣利率變動不會對企業盈利造成大影響,但若內地車企在美國及香港上市,外國資者按使用美元作爲投資貨幣單位,若美國未來利率變化潛在顯着,會對本港上市的內地汽車股的內在估值構成影響。
該行指按三個現金流折現率模型,評估依賴與外資合資國企車企、國內汽車製造商,以及業績錄虧損的電動汽車初創車企,測試貼現率變化對其敏感性。假設加權平均資本成本(Weighted Average Cost of Capital)每改變1%的情境預測下,料與外資合資國企車企公平值變動預測4%、料國內汽車製造商公平值變動預測15%、估計對電動車企公平值變動預測達到20%。
若按相關敏感性排列,若車企的毛利率越低、收支越遲達到平衡、增長率較快但同時預測市銷率或市賬率的估值越高,即市場對估值反映未來因素越高,料美國未來利率變化對相關車企的估值敏感性影響將會越大。該行料在內地純電動車企中,受敏感性排名影響第一位是小鵬汽車、第二位是蔚來汽車(NIO.US)、第三位理想汽車-W(02015.HK)(LI.US)。
至於內地車企中,該行料受敏感性排名影響第一位是比亞迪、第二位是吉利(00175.HK)、第三位是長汽(02333.HK)。
瑞銀指,內地國企車股股價在過去三個月停滯不前,蔚來汽車跌幅最大,超過40%。基本面,該行指在初創車企中偏好理想汽車(予「買入」評級)。該行指在美聯儲未來將加息下,料小鵬可能成爲弱勢股票之一。(wl/k)
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