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今天的市場怎麼看?
格隆匯 01-27 21:16

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

歷史上……這麼多股票下跌

好像還是在前天……

昨晚首先美聯儲的聲明非常鷹,全球資產價格的波動預計要持續至3月加息預期兑現時。 

“不排除在每次會議上都加息”美聯儲今年還剩餘7次會議,分別在3月、5月、6月、7月、9月、11月、12月。(近20多年僅2005年加息8次利率由1%升至5.25%)

“還沒有決定加息的幅度”一般每次習慣是25bp,這話説的,萬一一次加50pb,一次頂兩次,這個市場完全沒有預期。

美聯儲的政策,對A股來説,已經不再是情緒上的影響了。今天北上資金流出140多億。

目前北上資金累計流入已經有1.7萬億左右,持有市值總計已經2.6萬億了,我們的資本市場其實已經越來越開放,未來受到全球市場的影響也會越來越大。這個資金已經是非常大的體量,而這些資金的成本,其實是美元成本,所以美聯儲的加息,會實質性的改變這些資金的行為。

而且,如果過年要取出資金,今天就是最後一個賣出的機會,週五賣是拿不到錢的。

另外,今天購買國債逆回購可以計息10天。

這些都是今天A股市場恐慌的一些解釋吧,明天應該就好了,最後一天大概率還是會比較平穩的。

而且今天盤後還有寧王的業績預吿,大超預期,也算是給市場一針強心劑了。

寧德時代披露2021年年報預吿,預計2021年實現歸屬淨利潤140-165億元,同比增長151%-196%,扣非淨利潤120-140億元,同比增長181%-228%。單四季度歸屬淨利潤62-87億元,扣非淨利潤54-74億元,幾乎相當於前三季度的利潤,大幅超出市場預期。

寧德時代業績大超預期的原因可能包括:

1)銷量確認超預期,前期定增反饋中披露,2021年1-3季度產量103.5GWh、銷量73.4GWh,假設Q4產量在50GWh以上,則Q4確認60-70GWh是比較容易實現的。尤其是高毛利的儲能,前期公眾號披露過2021年儲能增長7倍即17GWh,而前三季度僅確認8GWh,Q4儲能佔比可能達到15%左右。

2)盈利能力超預期,2021年寧德時代部分訂單採用一定幅度內的原材料聯動,下半年價格有所上浮,且寧德時代2021Q3末存貨350億,2021Q3單季度購買商品現金支出達到298億,存在獲取低價原材料,進而成本好於市場預期的可能。

3)寧德時代在研發服務、前期減值轉銷等方面也存在利潤釋放的空間。

目前市場預期寧德22/23業績大概在300/430億元,對應PE為45、31倍。

其實……已經很划算了

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