國君社服：邁向大眾旅遊新時代
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：劉越男、於清泰
事件：近期文旅部印發《十四五旅遊發展規劃》，明確了旅遊發展階段及目標，重點對旅遊供給端結構性改革、出入境遊的相關政策及產業發展規劃進行了詳細指引。
核心觀點：①經濟增長的重要引擎與幸福產業，對旅遊產業定位很高，政策的扶持和鼓勵方向明確；②重點強調了供給側結構性改革重要性，強調增強市場主體活力，鼓勵旅行社、免税、目的地景區行業集中度提升；③強調了旅遊企業培養全球競爭力，參與國際化競爭，對免税等具備出海潛力的企業有重要指引作用；④規劃整體依然立足國內遊，但對出入境旅遊同樣重視，並對後疫情時代出入境開放做了詳細規劃部署。推薦標的：錦江酒店，首旅酒店，華住酒店，宋城演藝，天目湖，中青旅，黃山旅遊，峨眉山，眾信旅遊。
全面進入大眾旅遊時代，旅遊產業定位高，但發展仍不平衡。①階段判斷：全面進入大眾旅遊時代，從觀光，向觀光與休閒度假兼顧轉變；②旅遊產業定位：成為具有顯著時代特徵的幸福產業，國民經濟增長的重要引擎；③現階段問題：發展不平衡，距離對美好生活新期待有差距，需求沒有充分釋放，供給側結構性改革任務重，創新動能不足，治理水平提升。
政策對景區目的地、旅行社以及出入境均有所鼓勵。①出入境：1）分步有序促進入境旅遊，提升購物離境退税服務水平，擴大購物離境退税政策覆蓋面；2）穩步發展出境旅遊，支持有條件的國內旅遊企業跟隨中國遊客“走出去”，構建海外旅遊接待網絡，加強國際化佈局，參與全球競爭；3）與港澳台合作：推進粵港澳大灣區旅遊一體化；支持香港旅遊業繁榮發展，加強內地與香港旅遊業的客源互送、宣傳營銷；推動澳門世界旅遊休閒中心建設；②目的地及旅遊產品：1）建設世界級旅遊景區和度假區，打造文化特色鮮明的旅遊休閒城市和街區；2）優化旅遊空間/城市城鄉佈局；3）文化與旅遊相結合；4）完善旅遊產品供給體系：冰雪、自駕、研學、郵輪等；③旅行社及企業：1）增強市場主體活力，培養一批大型旅遊集團和有國際影響力的旅遊企業；2）旅行社：支持旅行社向現代集約、高效轉變；3）促進在線旅遊服務企業規範健康發展。
風險提示：疫情反覆對短期旅遊和商旅需求衝擊風險，旅遊企業面臨長時間疫情停擺導致現金流風險。
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