瑞銀:今年大眾消費品盈利改善能力趨樂觀 乳製品行業開啟利潤率擴張周期
瑞銀發表中國消費行業展望,對今年大眾消費品盈利能力改善趨於樂觀,看好必需消費品。
瑞銀大中華消費品行業主管彭燕燕表示,中國乳製品行業今年開啟利潤率擴張周期,預計原奶價格將在上半年企穩,並從下半年開始下降,因為原奶的供應量增加。該行預測原奶價格將從2021年的每公斤4.3元分別下降到2022和2023年的4.15元和3.85元,料中期內價格競爭或將緩和。
中國運動服裝行業方面,彭燕燕表示,消費者對運動服裝需求強勁,頭部國產和國際品牌折扣率水平健康。2022北京冬奧會是近期的股價催化劑。
瑞銀亦看好大家電行業,雖然房地產相關風險不容忽視,但預計今年家電需求將持續回暖,主要由積極的政策刺激下更新周期加速及滲透率提升所驅動,意味今年白電企業的盈利或將迎來反彈。該行分析顯示,更新需求在大家電各品類中銷量佔比約為40%至70%,而房地產帶動的需求在白電中銷量佔比約為30%、在油煙機中略超50%。若2022年房地產竣工下滑12%,將導致大家電銷量對應下滑4%至6%。
該行較不看好今年中國餐飲行業表現,目前堂食客流恢復被疫情反覆和外賣替代效應拖累。全國去年上半年商場客流較2019年上半年仍有18%差距,最主要因素包括消費者信心不足、外賣使用更頻繁和政府對疫情的限制政策。而佔中餐市場最大品類的火鍋,擁有最高的標準化潛力,但由於競爭對手加盟模式下激進擴張,中高端市場競爭愈發激烈。
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