瑞銀料本港今年住宅樓價跌5% 或再有數間內房債務違約
瑞銀中國/香港房地產投資研究主管林鎮鴻表示,對今年香港地產行業看法較爲審慎,料將受美國加息、中國經濟增長放緩、人口流出及內房信心危機四個因素影響,預期今年本港住宅樓價或下跌5%。
他指,瑞銀目前預料美國今年會加息一次,未來兩年再各加兩次,息口上升將加重供樓負擔,而今年一手樓供應估計按年將增加50%,中資發展商亦有較多供應。雖然新香港人買樓意欲增加,未來買樓佔比料會由目前的12%進一步上升,但仍難抵銷負面因素對樓價構成的壓力。行業中,他今年最看好本地零售租賃,其次爲住宅,最不看好供應繼續增加的寫字樓市場。
內房方面,林鎮鴻稱行業現時主要面對市場信心完全崩潰的問題,金融機構及買樓人士均對房地產失去信心。他預期內房企業於今年1月、3月及4月將有大量債務到期,屆時可能再有數間企業債務違約或需債務重整,除非政府推出更有力的政策放鬆,例如國企直接收購民企。
他認爲,內房未來將出現民企及國企分化嚴重的現象,由於再融資困難,部分過去兩月銷售大幅下跌的民企或較難生存,相信行業未來會有更多收併購,國企料會取得更多市場份額,民企在境外融資渠道收窄下的生存空間會減少。
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