《大行報告》瑞銀料本港住宅樓價今年跌5% 下調新地(00016.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)評級至「中性」
瑞銀發表報告指,其年度投資意向調查有兩個主要發現,包括內地專業人士對香港住宅物業的看法比香港人更為正面,主因他們的負擔能力更高(較香港人高120%),此對本港地產行業有利。然而,由於內地對資本外流的嚴格控制,加上經濟增長放緩,該行對有關人士近期對行業的貢獻持審慎態度。
該行又認為,持續的人口外流、美聯儲可能加息,及更高的預售供應(增長51%),或會進一步對今年的樓價帶來壓力,預期本港今年住宅樓價將下跌5%。另一方面,瑞銀驚訝置業人士並不擔心住屋供應增加,相信是因近年的供應增長有限。不過,該行看法更加謹慎,指注意到本港農田轉換加速,以及政府改善協調以增加新樓落成。
瑞銀重申對恆地(00012.HK)及信置(00083.HK)股份的「沽售」評級,恆地目標價由26.3元升至28.6元,信置目標價則維持9元。至於新地(00016.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)評級均由「買入」降至「中性」,新地目標價由130.4元下調至100元,新世界目標價則由42.1元調低至30.1元。而長實集團(01113.HK)評級由「沽售」上調至「中性」,目標價由35.1元升至52元。
發展商中,該行喜好順序依次為新地、新世界、長實、九倉(00004.HK)、嘉里(00683.HK)、信置及恆地。收租股喜好順序則為領展(00823.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)、太古地產(01972.HK)、九倉置業(01997.HK)、希慎興業(00014.HK)及冠君產業信託(02778.HK)。
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