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《大行報告》花旗下調優然牧業(09858.HK)目標價至7元 評級「買入」
花旗發表研究報告指出,優然牧業(09858.HK)管理層預計去年牛羣規模增長逾30%,計及併購將達到 40萬隻以上,料可鞏固市場第一的地位,並在原奶價格上漲的情況下保持強勁收入增長;但由於飼料成本升幅均高於預期,相信去年下半年淨利潤率增長被抵銷。 該行指,優然預計去年優質原奶的價格上漲9%至10%;監於定價機制不同,公司預計特種原料奶的價格升幅較小。展望2022年,管理層預計供應仍將短缺,價格料溫和上升。由於上遊大型奶牛場和下遊乳品製造商深度協調,有助防止奶牛場過度擴張,加上消費升級下液態奶無法被奶粉取替,預期今明兩年不太可能出現供過於求的情況。 管理層訂立5年發展目標,計劃至2026年收入增長至300億元人民幣,其中原奶收入較2021年翻倍,飼料收入則目標達到100億元人民幣以上,畜羣規模將擴展到80萬隻。 花旗將優然牧業2021至2023年收入預測上調 4%至7%,以反映更高的原奶價格和飼料銷售預期,但亦因飼料成本上升而削減毛利率預測,2021至2023年淨利潤預測相應下降8%至13%,目標價由7.4元下調至7元,維持「買入」評級。
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