國君策略：穩增長基建興，調結構開局贏
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國君策略陳顯順，作者：陳顯順 蘇徽
摘要
大勢研判：聚焦穩增長，仍需調結構。近期市場高位波動，賺錢效應有所收窄，調整與波動的背後主要在於：1）12月以來全面降準疊加1年期LPR調降，寬鬆預期階段性兑現；2）海外加息預期抬升，全球通脹與疫情擴散形成困境交匯；3）“打假”外資等階段性因素，給交易擁擠、估值較高的新能源等成長板塊帶來較大壓力。撇開擾動，新的動能仍在醖釀，“政策底→估值底→盈利底”的傳導鏈條將接力進行。展望後市，我們維持“躁動並非一蹴而就”的判斷，認為本輪跨年攻勢的節奏更偏温和。隨着2022年一季度穩增長具體政策的漸次落地，以及寬鬆預期再次打開想象空間，跨年行情仍將進一步演繹。
結構背後：正視盈利與估值的博弈。我們在2022年度策略展望中指出，未來市場風格將轉向確定性成長，並由此衍生出兩類結構。其一，以食品飲料、農林牧漁為代表的必選消費，是盈利反轉邏輯最強的核心配置主線，兼具高勝率與高賠率；其二，以新能源產業鏈為代表的景氣成長，仍將受益於能源結構轉型紅利。我們看到近期市場結構分化明顯，而流動性預期的變化則是成長行業出現調整的主要原因。尤其是，剋制型寬鬆情形下，高估值板塊面臨破局壓力。與此同時，穩增長的信號之下，盈利預期的反轉動能愈加突出。往後看，在把握成長性的基礎上，應當正視盈利與估值的博弈，結構上維持“消費否極泰來”與“低估值的收穫季”的判斷。
行業配置：基建鏈配置價值提升。政策層面，經濟面臨需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力，穩增長成為核心任務。考慮到地產投資相對疲弱、出口增速逐步放緩，在內需消費修復是慢變量的情形下，廣義基建成為新的發力點。從結構佔比來看，傳統基建為增長主體，重點落在交通運輸、水利工程等領域。從邊際變化來看，以風電、光伏、BIPV、充電樁為代表能源新基建，以及以5G、IDC、衞星互聯網等為代表的信息新基建等，盈利彈性空間值得期待。
國君策略2022年1月金股組合：1、金融：中信證券/寧波銀行；2、建材：東方雨虹/偉星新材；3、建築：中國電建；4、農業：牧原股份；5、食品飲料：五糧液；6、汽車：雙環傳動；7、電子：立訊精密；8、電新：億緯鋰能。
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