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銅箔的下半場:客户,供應鏈和產品迭代
格隆匯 12-24 08:54

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:敖翀 拜俊飛 等

對鋰電銅箔未來供應過剩的擔憂是當前銅箔板塊的主要矛盾。我們預計銅箔行業的競爭要素從過去的設備和資金瓶頸轉向:1)客户渠道,2)供應鏈管理,3)產品持續迭代能力。同時高性能電子電路銅箔成為市場的下一個風口。我們推薦在鋰電銅箔領域具備領先優勢並率先發力高端電子電路銅箔的嘉元科技以及在供應鏈管理和成本管控方面具備突出優勢的海亮股份。

銅箔行業基礎信息:

電解銅箔可分為鋰電銅箔和電子電路銅箔兩類,截至目前電子電路銅箔仍為電解銅箔的主要種類,2020年出貨量佔比約為70%。鋰電銅箔是鋰電池的關鍵部件,約佔電池質量的13%,成本的9%。鋰電銅箔的“薄化”以及高性能電子電路銅箔的進口替代是行業主要的發展趨勢。

鋰電銅箔行業產能過剩的擔憂是當前銅箔板塊的主要矛盾。

我們預計2021-2025年全球鋰電銅箔需求量將從31.5萬噸增至101.2萬噸,CAGR達到40%。鋰電銅箔需求的快速增長導致2021-2022年銅箔行業出現供不應求,行業迎來景氣週期。由於大量鋰電銅箔企業啟動產能擴張以及傳統銅企“跨界”參與銅箔行業競爭,我們預計2023年鋰電銅箔產能將迎來躍升,達到91萬噸,導致全球鋰電銅箔產能過剩達到14.5萬噸,行業供需格局走向寬鬆。

鋰電銅箔行業的競爭要素轉向客户渠道、供應鏈管理以及產品迭代能力。

由於銅箔企業集中上市以及主要設備陰極輥的國產化趨勢提速,過去制約銅箔擴產的設備和資金瓶頸在逐漸弱化。鋰電銅箔行業的競爭進入更深層次:1)客户渠道是影響銅箔企業良品率的關鍵因素,對企業的成本管控影響顯著;2)隨着銅箔企業產能規模擴大,供應鏈管理壓力增加;3)依靠技術迭代實現產品優勢,獲得超越市場的盈利能力。以上三點將作為鋰電銅箔行業後續競爭的關鍵要素。

高性能電子電路銅箔將是銅箔行業的下一個風口。

電子電路銅箔市場容量將保持增長,2025年需求量預計達到73萬噸,2021-2025年CAGR為7.4%。與鋰電銅箔行業由內資企業主導不同,在高性能電子電路銅箔領域,內資企業競爭力薄弱,2020年高端產品出貨量佔比僅為3.7%。高性能電子電路銅箔售價高昂,可達常規銅箔價格的兩倍,利潤空間突出。高性能電子電路銅箔將成為國內銅箔企業爭奪的下一個重要賽道,率先發力的企業有望實現盈利能力的持續領先。

風險因素:

銅箔行業競爭加劇導致加工費下滑;相關企業產能擴張不及預期;鋰電銅箔技術變更的風險;下游消費增長不及預期。

投資策略:

對鋰電銅箔未來供應過剩的擔憂是當前銅箔板塊的主要矛盾。我們預計鋰電銅箔的產能躍升將在2023年出現,這將導致行業的競爭要素從過去的設備和資金瓶頸轉向:1)客户渠道,2)供應鏈管理;3)產品持續迭代能力。同時高性能電子電路銅箔成為市場的下一個風口,率先發力相關領域的公司有望擴大與同行業企業的盈利差距。綜上,我們推薦在鋰電銅箔行業具備技術迭代能力和優質客户渠道且率先發力高端電子電路銅箔的嘉元科技以及在供應鏈管理和成本管控方面具備突出優勢併發力銅箔製造的海亮股份。

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