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大摩:中國電動車市場擴張助鋰價格上升 評級贛鋒鋰業“增持”

大摩發研報指,智利大選對鋰供應造成影響,但贛鋒鋰業(1772.HK)管理層表示公司在智利沒有項目,其主要項目在阿根廷,而且到目前為止,智利當地的鋰礦開採並未受到明顯影響,但不排除提高税率和成立國有鋰業公司的可能性,或為鋰供應帶來不確定性,予目標價199港元及“增持”評級。

該行表示,中國碳酸鋰現貨價格的表現一直優於氫氧化鋰,管理層將此歸因於,較高的原材料成本;碳酸鋰價格對市場變化的敏感性高及衍生產品的出現,預計氫氧化鋰的現貨價格將在未來逐漸趕上。對於公司本身,由於氫氧化鋰的長期銷售性質,其實現的平均售價大多仍落後於現貨價格,儘管管理層預計會穩步改善。

該行續指,隨著電動汽車市場快速擴張引發了在中國對鋰的需求和價格再次進入上升週期,這可能有助於贛鋒的盈利複合年增長率在2021至2025年間達約20%。

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