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《大行報告》中金:阿里(09988.HK)未來還有很多硬仗要打 但料邊際改善概率遠大於惡化階段
阿思達克 12-21 10:30
中金近日發表報告表示,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)於上周四(16日)及上周五(17日)日召開2021年投資者日活動。此次會議公司管理層深入分享了核心電商、新電商、本地生活、跨境電商、物流和雲計算業務的發展近況,並展望了未來集團的戰略和投資方向。該行引述阿里管理層指中國目前的經濟和消費放緩反映了一些短期和結構性變化的影響,對長期增長依然有較強信心。 阿里管理層表示,面對日趨激烈的競爭環境,認為阿里在電商領域最大的優勢是用戶的消費心智——阿里是一個中國重要的消費目的地。對於核心電商,公司將不斷優化消費端、供應端和匹配效率。公司強調當平台能持續為商家和消費者創造價值時,收入增長將是自然結果。對於新業務的投入節奏,公司將始終堅持多業務引擎,將基於長期戰略與目標的重要性、市場潛力以及規模化/可持續增長的可能性三大維度思考對新業務進行有紀律性的投入。代表下沉市場探索的「淘特」和「淘菜菜」仍處發展初期,公司將對用戶心智的獲取進行持續的投入。 中金指,維持對阿里巴巴「跑贏行業」評級,維持對阿里港股目標價186港元,對應2022財年非通用會計準則市盈率26倍。 該行認為,阿里面臨宏觀上消費的疲弱、面對國內監管上的適應期、面對海外監管的系統性風險、競爭上對手的快速崛起,幾乎在同一時刻,把所有不確定性因素都轉化成確定性的衝擊落地,而市場也會自發的順應著阻力最小的方向,給以上所有不確定性一個確定性解釋為「互聯網公司正經歷盛極而衰的周期」。以至於市場受其影響,很容易忽略了中美一緊一收對宏觀上截然不同的影響、過度擔憂了監管上的收緊、誇大了競爭對手可能帶來的不利影響,更忽略了一個大型平台在應對外部變化時主觀上的努力和付出。 中金稱,阿里未來的確還有很多硬仗要打,但從邊際變化的角度看,事實上已經到了一個邊際改善概率遠遠大於繼續惡化概率的階段。
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