《即日市評》恆指本週累跌803點 科網股及信義系今受壓
市場關注中美關係發展,受科網股拖累下,恆指今日回落。英倫銀行加息0.15釐出乎市場預期、歐洲央行一如預期維持利率不變、明年三月結束疫情緊急買債計劃及會短暫擴大傳統量化寬鬆取代;美股道指及納指昨各跌0.1%及2.5%,執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率升至1.423釐,美匯指數處95.97,美股道指期貨最新升36點或0.1%,納指期貨最新跌0.4%。上證綜指全日跌42點或1.2%收3,632點、滬深兩市成交額共1.16萬億人民幣。
恆指今早低開11點後跌幅擴大,曾跌316點低見23,158點,全日跌282點或1.21%,收23,192點;國指跌131點或1.58%,收8,218點;恆生科技指數跌141點或2.43%,收5,680點。大市全日成交金額1,626.12億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入24.33億及30.96億元人民幣。
恆指本週累跌803點或3.3%、國指本週累跌360點或4.2%、恆生科指本週累跌354點或5.9%。市場關注通脹壓力及環球央行明年加息,美聯儲局近日公佈維持利率不變符合市場預期,並宣佈將每月縮減買債規模加大一倍至300億美元,預期提早至明年3月結束買債。聯儲局點陣圖顯示,多數委員預計明年將加息3次,每次加息25個點子。
【科網股受壓 美團挫半成】
科網股走弱,美團(03690.HK)全日股價下滑5.3%收225.8元,阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)跌3.1%,而騰訊(00700.HK)股價走低3.2%。中金髮表報告,預期內地互聯網企業今季基本面展望平淡,並指疫情反覆導致11月各主流OTA平臺的用戶流量大幅下降,攜程(09961.HK)、去哪兒旅行及飛豬的數據均出現大幅按月下降。
中金錶示,內地電商行業11月線上消費進入旺季,受高基數、整體消費疲軟以及直播帶貨對部分品類造成的分流影響,「雙十一」逐漸步入新常態,GMV增速較往年有所放緩,電商平臺更聚焦於供需兩端的可持續發展。遊戲行業則受未成年人保護等政策以及個人信息保護法的影響,維持對近期遊戲大盤增速的保守態度。
【跌股千一隻 匯控逆市漲】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲13比28(上日爲24比16),下跌股份1,173只(跌幅2.8%);恆指成份股今日23只股份上升,下跌股份40只,升跌比率爲36比63(上日爲56比39)。大市今日錄沽空214.27億元,佔可沽空股份成交1,377.8億元的15.552%(上日14.917%)。
匯控(00005.HK)今日股價逆市上揚2.8%收46.4元,渣打(02888.HK)股價漲2.3%。美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)暗示明年或加息三次,摩根士丹利發表報告指出,假設香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)及新加坡銀行同業拆息(SIBOR)跟隨滯後六個月,或利好明年第四季新加坡和香港銀行的淨息差表現,較原先預期的2023年第一季有所加快。加上英倫銀行貨幣政策委員會(MPC)出乎市場預期宣佈加息,料匯豐控股(00005.HK)將較其他亞洲銀行有利。
信義光能(00968.HK)及信義玻璃(00868.HK)全日股價各跌9.4%及近6%。就信義光能與信義玻璃成立合營信義晶硅,於雲南省曲靖市從事多晶硅生產項目,由信義光能及信義玻璃最高出資承擔總額33億元人民幣,大和料預期合營將於獲頒施工及生產許可的兩年內完成建設,即最早將於2024財年初投產。該行預期明年首季多晶硅價格將保持在每公斤超過150元人民幣的高水平,但隨着產能釋放,估計多晶硅價格將跌至每公斤介乎65至70元人民幣的歷史低位。而信義晶硅可能於2024財年投產時面臨平均售價及利潤壓力。
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