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瑞銀:料短視頻和直播帶貨將成電商重點,籲買快手

瑞銀髮表研究報吿指,去年監管和社區團購的競爭推動了中國電子商務發展,相信今年的重點將轉往內容驅動電商,料短視頻和直播帶貨長期將佔電商GMV的三分之一。該行預期,短視頻和直播帶貨2025年GMV達7.4兆人民幣,佔總GMV的28%,即內容驅動的2020-25年GMV複合年增長率達37%,為其餘電商業務增長的3倍。該行認為,快手(1024.HK)為這主題的主要參與者,而阿里巴巴、拼多多及唯品會將有更多壓力。

瑞銀予快手“買入”評級,目標價154港元;予騰訊“買入”評級,目標價600港元;予美團“買入”評級,目標價320港元。

瑞銀指,快手及字節跳動的GMV增長將更高,因為內容及社區平台令它們比同業面對商家更有價值優勢,另外商家亦更願意與新平台合作,因客户獲取的投資回報率更吸引,以及轉移增量廣吿預算。該行認為,這趨勢推動更多年輕及低線城市的新消費者。

瑞銀預期,字節跳動的抖音及快手於2025年將佔內容電商GMV的55%市佔率,而淘寶則佔28%,另外小紅書亦是另一個更小型的受惠者,騰訊旗下的微信亦是長遠的競爭者。

瑞銀相信,阿里巴巴與唯品會的中國GMV市佔率已達頂峯,而京東及拼多多的市佔率料於未來幾年趨於穩定。

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