建銀國際證券料明年恆指22,000點至28,600點上落 推騰訊招行及長汽等十股
建銀國際證券研究部董事總經理及首席策略師趙文利表示,今年港股估值及盈利雙殺,恆指預測市盈率已跌至僅約11.5倍,計及成份股調整及加入新經濟股等因素後只有約10.5倍,與以往歐債危險及中美關係惡化等市場下跌周期的底部估值相若,因此認為恆指下跌空間已有限。
他預期,恆指明年將於22,000點至28,600點之間上落,料會呈先高後低走勢,上半年估計受惠於企業盈利修復、內地財政貨幣政策放鬆、中港通關及香港回歸廿五周年惠港政策等而走高,到下半年則被內地通脹升溫令政策偏緊、美國部署加息致港元轉弱資金流走等拖累。
行業方面,趙文利於明年上半年看好恢復通關及惠港政策的受惠者例如香港零售、物業收租、金融及旅遊等板塊。至於新經濟的政策能見度改善,料下半年可見估值修復。
對於滴滴(DIDI.US)準備在美退市及來港上市,他認為隨著美國監管壓力趨強,在美上市的中資股期望有兩手準備,加上來港上市門檻下調,估計未來會有更多中資股選舉在港第二上市。至於內房債務問題的風險雖然仍在,但相信隨著當局的工作組進入企業,明年行業債務的可見度會有較快提升,發生系統性風險機會較低。趙文利預期,行業會由較快增長轉至平穩健康發展,並出現兼併、整合及重組。
建銀國際於明年推薦十隻焦點股,包括騰訊(00700.HK),目標價566元;招商銀行(03968.HK),目標價80元;長城汽車(02333.HK),目標價41.2元;藥明生物(02269.HK),目標價150元;安踏體育(02020.HK),目標價147元;舜宇光學(02382.HK),目標價260元;龍湖集團(00960.HK),目標價52.8元;龍源電力(00916.HK),目標價22.6元;華虹半導體(01347.HK),目標價58.5元;以及敏實集團(00425.HK),目標價43.9元。
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