國泰君安：智能汽車時代拉開序幕，智能座艙爆發性強
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：吳曉飛
消費羣體變遷和新盈利模式塑造的雙重推動下，汽車智能化在加速發展，智能化邊界也在不斷擴容。作為伴隨智能手機崛起而長大的一代，90後/00後對汽車的智能網聯化需求更加突出尤其是在某些體驗感很深的座艙&自動駕駛等領域，會成為影響購車決策的重要因素；同時汽車行業盈利模式正從製造端向軟件端延伸，盈利對象從新車銷售向存量市場全生命週期擴展，智能化是實現新盈利模式的前提，也是最主要載體。在多重因素驅動下，汽車智能化將迎來加速發展，智能化的邊界逐步從精密控制走向提升駕駛體驗。
相對低單品價格、低安全等級要求、強體驗感受，智能座艙產品具有很強爆發性。座艙作為駕駛的空間主體，更容易從視覺和聽覺兩個維度與駕駛員形成智能交互和駕駛感受，容易打造出差異化賣點；座艙的主要應用多聯屏、聲學系統、HUD等單價相對較低，能兼容中端車型因而具備廣泛的客户羣體；而座艙中除了車機外大部分產品的安全等級要求相對較低，開發週期相對短。綜合看來，智能座艙的單品具備快速放量的基礎。
L2+級別的ADAS裝配率開始加速提升，帶動感知層攝像頭、毫米波雷達等傳感器的快速放量，執行端的線控應用也將加速滲透。2020年中國的ADAS裝配主要以L0和L1級別為主，預計到2025年L2+級別滲透率將達到35%，在這個過程中攝像頭、毫米波雷達的單車用量將持續提升；而在執行端，更高級別自動駕駛對於制動和轉向等產品的線控解耦要求更加強烈，帶動線控制動和電子轉向的加速滲透。
投資建議：推薦座艙電子、自動駕駛及軟硬件產業鏈、車身電子及其他配套產業鏈。座艙電子推薦標的上聲電子、華陽集團、華域汽車、均勝電子等，自動駕駛及軟硬件服務推薦標的科博達、德賽西威、吉利汽車、長城汽車、聯創電子（電子組覆蓋）、舜宇光學科技（電子組覆蓋）、中科創達（計算機組覆蓋）；底盤電子推薦標的伯特利、中鼎股份、保隆科技、拓普集團；車身電子推薦星宇股份、福耀玻璃；其他領域推薦合興股份，受益標的滬光股份。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇的風險，自動駕駛監管政策的風險。
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