《大行報告》大摩料內地將推出一些逆週期措施支持房地產行業 房產稅試點運行將比預期溫和
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指出中國恆大(03333.HK)上周五(3日)宣布可能無法履行其2.6億美元的債務義務,或導致潛在違約和重組。於公告後的兩小時內,人民銀行、中國銀保監會和中證監均迅速發布對恆大和地產板塊的評論,反映監管機構已準備好應對有關情況。
該行指出,監管機構強調恆大事件為單獨個案,有關風險是由公司急速擴張所引起,溢出風險可控。該行亦相信有關情況可控,理由是監管機構及地方政府已有處理違約的經驗和機制,以減少系統性風險,而恆大債務重組將於控股公司層面進行,公司物業項目在監管機構及地方政府支持下,逐步恢復營運。
此外,該行預計,內地將推出一些逆週期措施來支持房地產行業,相信房產稅試點運行將比市場預期溫和,如稅收範圍較小或延遲開始日期。相信在明年1月1日發布的2022年按揭貸款配額將於一定程度上有助發展商緩解現金流和流動性情況。
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