植耀輝: 美股維持震盪 科技股拖累恆指恐續試底
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,受新冠變種病毒消息衝擊,加上就業數據遠遜預期,美股上週顯着波動,週五(3日)開市早段曾升超過160點,但其後由升轉跌之餘跌幅又一度擴大至380點。不過尾市又再度出現反彈,最終道指僅跌59點,標普500指數及納指跌幅則分別達到0.84%及1.92%。全周計,道指累跌0.9%,標普及納指則分別累跌1.2%及2.6%。
至於港股,上週整體表現偏弱,雖然踏入12月後連升兩個交易日,但上週五在中資股急跌拖累下,恆指全周計下跌314點或1.3%,收報23,766點。值得一提的是,科指跌幅更大,累跌達3.67%,收報5,925點。由於上週五在美上市之中概股股價普遍急跌,恐怕今日將進一步拖低恆指及科指表現之餘,或有機會再試年內低位。筆者相信,美國審計新規對投資氣氛短期仍較負面,相關股份亦暫不宜撈底。投資策略亦較集中國策受惠板塊較好,當中便包括新能源及儲電設備股。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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大盤下行風險大 首要目標需守住23,500點
耀才研究部稱,上週美股持續波動,美國非農新增就業報21萬人,遠遜預期的50萬人;基於市場對新冠病毒Omicron的憂慮,以及聯儲局主席鮑威爾於發言時收起通脹屬暫時性的字眼,暗示要加速結束買債以及提前加息,令股市震盪下行,納指上週五(3日)再跌2%。展望本週,美國將公佈11月CPI,聯儲局視之爲重要的通脹參考數據指標,另一方面聯儲局將於本月14及15日議息,市場觀望氣氛較濃厚。中概股受到在美退市困擾持續下挫,阿裏(09988.HK)連日跌穿52周新低,港股ADR預示恆指將再失守23,500點,投資者不宜在此水平過度進取建倉。
從技術走勢上,恆指接連跌穿了24,600點及23,681點等多個支持位,於11月30日創新52周新低23175點,14RSI只有29的水平,表示弱勢亦持續,指數首要目標需守住23,500點。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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