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申萬宏源:寧波舟山港拉開港口調價序幕
本文來自: 上海申銀萬國證券研究所
覆盤歷史,航運景氣度會向港口傳導,我們認為寧波舟山港裝卸費調整隻是開端。海外碼頭已經實現了單箱收入的提升,馬士基旗下APM Terminal,單TEU 碼頭業務收入上漲10.7%,EBITDA Margin 逐年上漲,2017-2020 年分別為18%,21%,28%,32%。國內部分港口受2017 年反壟斷審查影響,尚未正式上調目錄價格,寧波舟山港調價是航運景氣度向國內港口傳導的開端。
壓制港口估值的三大因素已經改變。(1)2010 年以來,受前期超前碼頭行業超前投資影響,港口產能過剩,盈利能力下降。2016 年以來沿海港口建設成熟,行業新增資本開支投資趨緩,ROE 有望上升。(2)過去港口區域惡性競爭較為嚴重,經歷了港口區域一體化整合,有助於遏止港口同質化、惡性競爭。(3)反壟斷調查監管期到期,2017 年,國家發改委對於整改過程中涉嫌壟斷的港口將實行2-3 年的監管。隨着監管期結束,已經處於市場調節價範圍內的港口作業包乾費,有希望受益於航運景氣度向港口行業的傳導。美國碼頭擁堵嚴重,優質的碼頭資源對班輪公司服務能力意義重大,除了單純價格調整外,我們認為港口行業存在通過提高服務換取更高收益回報的可能。
投資分析意見:本次寧波舟山港目錄價格調整僅限外貿箱,我們認為在寧波舟山港調價後,其他港口在外貿箱裝卸費上有希望跟隨,優先推薦PE 估值較低,外貿吞吐量排名靠前的集裝箱樞紐港口。優先推薦關注寧波港、上港集團、招商港口、青島港等。參考上港集團、寧波港2020 年報,集裝箱裝卸費業務收入分別為133 億,56 億,假設單箱收入提升10%對應2021 年歸母淨利潤增加11%、10.9%。上港集團、寧波港當前PB(LF)1.1 倍左右,處於歷史最低區間。
風險提示:吞吐量增速低於預期、港口費率大幅下滑、港口反壟斷審查加強
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