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申萬宏源:寧波舟山港拉開港口調價序幕

本文來自: 上海申銀萬國證券研究所

事件:近期港口政策有邊際改善傾向。(1)11 月18 日,參考國務院網站,國函〔2021〕115 號《國務院關於同意在中國(上海)自由貿易試驗區臨港新片區暫時調整實施有關行政法規規定的批覆》,大連、天津、青島港與上海洋山剛去之間的外貿箱的沿海捎帶業務,向外國、香港、澳門特別行政區的國際班輪公司開放。(2)12 月1 日,寧波舟山港股份將《寧波舟山港外貿進出口集裝箱港口收費目錄清單(202111 版)》對外公示,該目錄清單從2022 年1 月1 日起執行,其中外貿進出口集裝箱調價10%。

壓制港口估值的三大因素已經改變。(1)2010 年以來,受前期超前碼頭行業超前投資影響,港口產能過剩,盈利能力下降。2016 年以來沿海港口建設成熟,行業新增資本開支投資趨緩,ROE 有望上升。(2)過去港口區域惡性競爭較為嚴重,經歷了港口區域一體化整合,有助於遏止港口同質化、惡性競爭。(3)反壟斷調查監管期到期,2017 年,國家發改委對於整改過程中涉嫌壟斷的港口將實行2-3 年的監管。隨着監管期結束,已經處於市場調節價範圍內的港口作業包乾費,有希望受益於航運景氣度向港口行業的傳導。美國碼頭擁堵嚴重,優質的碼頭資源對班輪公司服務能力意義重大,除了單純價格調整外,我們認為港口行業存在通過提高服務換取更高收益回報的可能。

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