《大行報告》中金料美團(03690.HK)業務將持續承壓 指疫情及宏觀影響初顯
中金發表告表示,美團(03690.HK)今年第三季度收入按年38%至488億人民幣(下同),基本符合市場預期;經調整淨虧損按季擴大33億元至55億元,較預期多2.7億元,主要因創新業務(除社區電商)規模擴張快於預期,導致虧損高於預期。
該行估計美團業務將持續承壓,指疫情及宏觀影響初顯,由於疫情、宏觀環境等的不確定性,該行調低對美團2021收入預期1%至180億元,基本維持2022年收入預期,將對其2021度經調整淨虧損由143億元調整至165億元,而2022年經調整淨利潤由37億元,調低淨虧損12億元,維持對其「跑贏行業」評級,看好外賣業務長期價值,維持目標價324港元,相當預測2022年市銷率6.5倍。
中金表示,美團第三季度外賣收入按年升28%至265億元,外賣交易規模按年升29%至1,971億元,日均單量按年增25%至4,360萬單,單價按季基本持平為49元。業務增速按季放緩主要受去年高基數、疫情反復、極端天氣和餐飲大盤增速放緩影響。供給側公司推出更多工具提升商家運營效率,活躍商家數持續提升;需求側優化品類運營,推出夜宵及奶茶品類,外賣交易用戶數及消費頻次創新高。貨幣化率環比小幅上升0.1百分點至13.4%,經營利潤率按年下降0.4百分點至3.3%,主要由於部分城市受疫情影響訂單密度下降、單均其他經營性成本提高。
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