騰訊廣告業務挑戰料持續到明年,機構對元宇宙發展展望積極
因中國監管整頓帶來衝擊,騰訊三季度營收增速降至2004年以來最低。
騰訊業績要點:三季度營收1424億元人民幣,預估1454.1億元。淨利潤395億元,預估326億元。網絡廣告收入225億元,預估245.6億元。
中金、花旗等機構認爲騰訊主要受疲軟的廣告業務拖累,且在監管和宏觀壓力下,公司業務受到的挑戰將持續到明年,中金並下調公司目標價。不過花旗和Jefferies對騰訊未來在元宇宙方面的發展展望樂觀,認爲公司具有技術、社交網絡等優勢。
中金分析師白洋等在報告中指出,騰訊三季度業績小幅低於預期,主要因廣告業務不佳,三季度該業務同比增長5%。
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- 教育、遊戲等行業受監管影響,原有廣告主減少預算或者原有投放 模式不再合規
- 個人信息保護法導致聯盟類廣告精準度下降,從而減少投放
- 整體線上流量增長放緩背景下,部分電商公司減弱了獲客投入
- 預計公司四季度廣告收入將同比下降8%,因廣告業務所受負面影響超過預期,分別下調公司今明兩年收入預測3%和7%,下調經調整淨利潤預測6%和13%
- 由於缺乏新遊有效拉動和去年的高基數,三季度遊戲業務收入增速繼續環比下滑
- 預計外部影響還將持續2-3個季度,公司股價或將在業務企穩前出現拐點
- 維持對公司的中性評級,但下調目標價10%至549港元
花旗分析師Alicia Yap等在報告中指出,
- 騰訊業績低於市場一致預期,該預期可能會下調以反映短期線上廣告需求的挑戰
- 四季度和明年全年,疲弱的宏觀環境和持續的監管壓力是公司收入增長的逆風,同時在商業服務、遊戲和內容領域的投資仍會使得利潤增速承壓
- 預計騰訊能夠憑藉現有技術、豐富的遊戲和社交網絡經驗等,在探索和捕捉未來元宇宙機會中處於優勢地位
- 仍對公司通過和用戶之間有韌性的連接等來維持和穩定增長保持樂觀,維持買入評級,上調目標價4.5% 至703港元
Jefferies分析師Thomas Chong等在報告中指出,
- 騰訊廣告業務的動能不會立即恢復,並會在明年一季度面臨激烈的競爭環境
- 元宇宙是未來需要發展的大的概念,騰訊在人工智能和基礎設施方面具備優勢
- 維持對公司的買入評級,目標價628港元
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