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標普:中國房地產業傳染風險攀升 料明年住宅銷售下降10%
標普全球評級發表報告,指出最近內地房企包括中國恆大(03333.HK)陷入困境的新聞,不斷打擊房地產市場情緒,導致中國房地產業的傳染風險上升。 標普全球評級大中華區企業信用研究首席分析師張積豪預計,明年內地住宅銷售將下降10%,2023年將下降5%至10%,價格下滑幅度可3%,或將是中國房地產市場史上,首次出現銷量連續幾年下降的狀況。他指出,隨着地價下降,近年各地較高度依賴出售住宅用地收入,或給地方政府和地方政府融資平臺帶來傳染風險,目前住宅用地佔土地出售收入約85%,比十年前高20個百分點。 標普,指單個開發商違約,對中國廣大且高分散度的房市將有有限的直接影響,但它產生的消息可擴大對市場的打擊,當前13%的購房者預期房價將下跌,2019年爲10%,儘管依然佔少數,但足以影響住房銷量,而在信用市場,今年發生的事件已經導致亞洲企業表現遜於拉美同業,爲三年來的首次。 標普認爲,自去年中開始,政府爲應對新冠疫情推出經濟刺激舉措,間接推高了房價,因此爲樓市降溫和減緩房價上漲的需求,使政府出臺了收緊政策,也將令寬鬆舉措限於暫時性和邊際性的放寬。
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