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《大行報告》大和下調中聯重科(01157.HK)目標價至6元 評級「跑贏大市」
大和發表研究報告指出,與中聯重科(01157.HK)投資者會議中,公司管理層承認目前營運環境具有挑戰性,主要由於對房地產市場的打擊,並預期還需要兩個季度的時間才能實現利潤率正常化,惟料將會出現更多積極因素。 該行指出,中聯重科管理層確認下遊需求減弱,但估計部分因原材料成本高企而延遲的項目,明年有機會恢復進度;預測明年房地產市場或正常化,因目前前所未有的需求疲弱或導致政府出手,以防止經濟衰退;估計基建支出將於未來兩年趕上;由2020年開始的更換週期通常持續三年,相信2021年起部分被壓抑的需求將於2022財年釋放。 中聯重科管理層展望,預期2022財年得到出口及如挖掘機及高空作業平臺(AWP)新產品的支持,目標2022年挖掘機的海外收入100億元人民幣,而整個AWP產品線收入達80億元人民幣,另預期毛利率需要兩個季度才能恢復至25%的正常水平。 大和將中聯重科的2021至2023財年每股盈利預測下調1至7%,收入預測降6至9%,以反映下遊需求持續下跌的趨勢。目標價由6.2元降至6元,重申「跑贏大市」評級。
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