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《大行報告》花旗:內地迎「滯脹」風險 料短期政策選項有限 估明年減息及降準
阿思達克 11-01 14:27
花旗發表研究報告,指由於內地限電及相關供應鏈阻礙,內地10月官方製造業PMI進一步收縮,生產者價格創紀錄新高;未來「滯脹」風險增加,料將限制短期政策選項。 該行指,現時商品庫存下降,推升售價;展望未來,在正常天氣下,內地第四季料需要進一步限制12%的工業能源消耗。報告稱,生產者價格通脹10月料創新高,第四季料維持按年升10.5%以上。PPI向CPI傳導更趨明確,例如內地因煤炭供應短缺,推高溫室種植成本,繼而大幅推高蔬菜價格。另豬肉價格下行週期料見底回升,未來數個月支持CPI增長加快。由於國家發改委近期監管調控措施,料生產者價格通脹將近見頂,以及PPI與CPI差距將收窄。 花旗表示,當供應鏈持續受限,需求不易被刺激,故此料內地短期會有更多具針對性的措施,包括央行要求銀行穩定房地產借貸,並持續針對性支持中小企。同時人行就「減碳」的新信貸工具料將展開,該行並料供應鏈在冬季後可紓緩,相信內地政府會有更進取的行動,以應對房地產相關需求弱勢,包括人行明年有可能降存款準備金率50點子,以及明年料或降息25點子。
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