瑞信:上調中國鋁業(2600.HK)AH股目標價 評級優於大市
瑞信發表研究報吿指,將中國鋁業(2600.HK)2021年度盈利預測上調9.7%,以反映氧化鋁價格上漲。該行表示,由於生產成本上升,鋁現金利潤率不斷縮水,但預期氧化鋁價格的上漲將為集團的盈利提供支持。該行將集團A股目標價由8.6元人民幣上調至8.8元人民幣,及H股目標價由7.4港元上調至7.6港元,維持AH股“優於大市”評級。
瑞信指,中鋁今年首9個月純利約53億元人民幣(下同),按年增約10倍,盈利增長主要是由於更高的鋁和氧化鋁價格以及更高的銷量。根據該行計算,第三季鋁均價按年上漲40%至每噸20529元。
報吿稱,目前鋁的平均現金利潤率約為每噸1500元,低於每噸6000元的高峯水平,是由於較高的生產成本,預期關税上升將對鋁的利潤率構成下行壓力。至於氧化鋁,近期鋁的減產對氧化鋁需求造成壓力。惟受疫情影響,氧化鋁出貨受到影響。該行料短期內氧化鋁價格將徘徊在每噸3700至4500元。
報吿提到,今年9個月鋁銷量按年增長6.4%至2.93公噸,氧化鋁銷量按年增長30.2%至7.1公噸。第三季鋁和氧化鋁銷量分別按年達到0.97及2.2公噸,按季分別下跌4%及12%。該行預計,銷量下降主要是由於限電和能源消耗控制導致的停產影響。

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