《大行報告》大摩重新予萬洲(00288.HK)「增持」評級看7.8元 上調中糧家佳康(01610.HK)目標價至2.9元
萬洲國際(00288.HK)將於今日(26日)收市後公佈首三季業績,摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指內地及美國生豬價格波動對生豬養殖行業帶來壓力。該行料美國需求復甦及中國生豬價格回升,爲萬洲帶來逐漸正面環境。該行恢復覆蓋萬洲予「增持」評級,目標價7.8元。
報告稱,內地生豬價格本年至今累跌37%,生豬/母豬庫存重返非洲豬瘟爆發前水平。邁向今年末季及明年首季需求高峯,料供需差距將收窄。美國方面,料自上季以來生豬現貨價格回調,以及10月起需求復甦,將支持下半年下遊產業復甦及新鮮豬肉回報。
大摩指出,倘疫情持續放緩,將爲萬洲作爲增長引擎的美國業務帶來增長機會,因10月起餐廳到店業務改善以及持續經濟重啓。萬洲現估值較其持有70%權益的雙匯發展(000895.SZ)呈折讓,意味美國業務被市場定價爲負值;倘美國業務復甦,情況將扭轉。
另外,報告下調今年生豬價格預測,以反映第三季跌幅大過預期,料明年生豬價格反彈。該行料下遊業務將受惠生豬養殖成本下降。報告維持中糧家佳康(01610.HK)「與大市同步」評級,目標價由2.6元升至2.9元,認爲現時估值合理。
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