《大行報告》美銀證券:內地樓市料有潛在重大放寬跡象 升融創(01918.HK)評級至「買入」
美銀證券發表研究報告指,中銀保監近日提出考慮通過降低首付比例及抵押貸款相關政策支持首次購房買家,10月份數據亦顯示內地有20個城市按揭貸款利率有所下降,同時據該行調查所得,本週較早時間開發商銀行貸款渠道趨向放寬。
該行認爲,當局近日的動作是刺激樓市需求的重要寬鬆信號,對上一次降低首付比例爲2015年,預計如果首付比例放寬,按揭貸款額度亦將更加寬鬆。
美銀證券指出,內房現時估值相當於預測2022年市盈率約4倍,較歷史均值低出約兩個標準差,於該板塊中繼續看好優質股份,認爲無論政策前景如何,該等公司都可增加市場份額,國企首選中海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、萬科(02202.HK);民企首選龍湖(00960.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)及新城控股(01030.HK)。
該行又將融創中國(01918.HK)的評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,目標價由17元升至24元,相當於2023年預測市盈率3.8倍,較歷史均值低出0.5個標準差。該行料融創在高槓杆情況下,可顯着受惠於更友善的政策論調,更強的置業需求及融資改善料大幅利好融創。此外,即使高槓杆,相較其規模而言,融創債務滿期壓力相對較小;今年上半年融創較其他高槓杆同業補充更多土儲,倘樓市復甦,其可售資源將有上行空間。
另美銀證券維持對碧桂園(02007.HK)及富力(02777.HK)「跑輸大市」評級。
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