預計拼多多Q3業績逆勢成長,營收或同比增106%
來源:中信證券研報
機構認爲,拼多多以滿足性價比、剛性需求爲主,用戶、商品供給仍處於健康增長期,預計Q3仍能保持較快的規模增長。2023年對應合理市值2209億美元,摺合目標價176美元/ADS。
中信證券20日發表研報,預計拼多多21Q3單季GMV和營收分別同比增長48%、106%,Non-GAAP淨利潤-4億元,淨利率-1.4%。

消費大盤疲軟,但公司業績預計將展現較強韌性
三季度整體消費需求偏弱,實物商品網上零售額同比僅增8.8%,二季度同比增速爲13.3%。但考慮到拼多多以滿足性價比、剛性需求爲主,用戶、商品供給仍處於健康增長期,預計21Q3仍能保持較快的規模增長,預計單季GMV和營收分別同比增長48%、106%。
同時機構預計主站營銷費用投放亦將延續Q2的謹慎態勢、多多買菜進一步優化UE模型,預計單季Non-GAAP淨利潤爲-4.0億元。
考慮到1P業務的不確定性對報表數據帶來的扭曲,建議投資人更多關注核心3P主業和多多買菜業務的經營進展及財務表現。
分業務看:
1)3P核心主業:預計單季GMV達6176億元,同比增長40.9%,廣告位量價齊升驅動下預計廣告貨幣化率同比上升0.3pct,帶動在線營銷收入同比增長55.3%至200.0億元。
同時預計Q3仍將延續ROI優先的營銷投放原則,預計3P核心主業單季Non-GAAPOP爲30億元,對應OPM13.7%。
2)多多買菜:預計單季GMV達237億元,環比增長25.4%,日均訂單量2860萬單,環比增長14%。高溫淡季疊加高壓監管,社區團購行業需求進入平臺期,公司在鞏固行業第一梯隊的同時通過客單價&毛利率提升及規模效應釋放帶動UE模型環比改善,預計21Q3單季OP爲-36.3億元,OPM爲-15.3%。
短期行業內卷客觀存在,底層機制優勢保障長期競爭力
客觀來看,電商行業在經歷了2019-2020年低線用戶的紅利外溢後,已經進入新的投入週期,而內容平臺的電商化、淘特爲代表的低價性價比平臺大幅投入加劇了用戶口袋份額的競爭,拼多多短期的規模增長和盈利變現均面臨一定程度的壓力。
但中信證券認爲,拼多多大單品的運營邏輯、重SKU輕品牌的流量分發機制、平權普惠的廣告競價體系,保證了平臺可以提供全渠道最具性價比的商品,同時兼顧商家、尤其是中小商家的廣告ROI,其渠道效率要大幅優於內容電商/其他性價比平臺。
勝率賠率兼備,2023年目標價爲176美元/ADS
中信證券維持前期觀點,從行業增量的爭奪到存量的再平衡,拼多多均是電商行業競爭力最出衆的玩家之一,公司的長期業務發展和平臺生態價值兼具高成長和高確定性。
但考慮到公司1P業務收縮,我們略下調公司2021E-23E年營收預測,但上調Non-GAAP淨利潤預測。

基於2023年公司各項業務假設,給予主站30xP/EBITA、多多買菜0.5xP/GMV(對應穩態下30x-35xPE),對應合理市值2,209億美元,摺合目標價176美元/ADS,按10%折現至2021年爲146美元/ADS。
當前公司股價已落入極具性價比的配置區間,對應22年/23年3P主業(1P、多多買菜0估值)僅28x/19xP/EBITA,建議積極佈局。維持「買入」評級。
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