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全球還在缺芯?供過於求已初露端倪
uSMART盈立智投 10-15 22:24

全球對半導體的訂單不斷增加,但這種強勁需求可能是由業界囤貨推動的。當供應鏈瓶頸緩解時,這可能是一個大問題。

得益於蘋果(AAPL.US)、英偉達(NVDA.US)和美國超微公司(AMD.US)等客戶的訂單,臺積電(TSM.US)週四公佈了創紀錄的利潤。 這種樂觀情緒將在可預見的未來持續下去,該公司預計全年營收將增長24%。

但這些訂單中的很大一部分並非用於滿足全球對電子產品、聯網汽車和加密貨幣礦場的需求。 截至9月底,臺積電的庫存較上年同期增長66%,這是該數字連續第四個季度攀升超過65%。另一個衡量庫存的指標——庫存天數保持在85天的高位。

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臺積電也意識到了這一情況。該公司首席執行官魏哲家告訴投資者,他預計客戶和供應鏈上的其他公司在年底前繼續增加庫存,並在較長一段時間內保持較高的庫存水平。這意味着臺積電並不是業內唯一一家存在高庫存問題的製造商。

Bloomberg專欄作家Tim Culpan認爲,這是一個令人擔憂的問題。臺積電一半以上的營收來自其最先進的5NM和7NM工藝。 一般來說,製程越先進,上架銷售的時間就越短:需要最新、最好芯片的客戶需要不斷升級。但全球瓶頸正迫使客戶下比平時更大的訂單,以避免在物流中斷時出現短缺。

Culpan表示,有很多行業可以在沒有太多風險的情況下儲存產品,比如煤炭、穀物,甚至較老的電子元件。 然而,在芯片行業的前沿,產品可能會在半年之內變得過剩,這一點客戶都知道。 如果客戶開始看到終端需求下滑,那麼他們很有可能會大幅削減訂單,以便消化已經囤積起來的庫存。

最後,Culpan警告稱,儘管全球仍面臨芯片短缺,但現在是時候清理積壓的芯片了。當前對芯片的高需求可能很快導致供過於求,當供應鏈重新開始平穩運轉時,要想消除這種供過於求可能會很痛苦。

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