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美股年內還能否創新高?就看三季報給不給力了

來源:智通財經

目前投資者聚焦本週開始的美股第三季度財報季動向,本次財報季可能會決定標普500指數能否在年底前繼續創紀錄高位。

DataTrek Research聯合創始人Nicholas Colas在一份報告中表示:“標普500指數成分股三季報需要超出預期10個百分點,否則我們幾乎肯定美國股市今年已經見頂了。”

Colas稱,從公司業績來看,今年是不同尋常的一年,第一季度收益超出預期27個百分點,第二季度收益超出預期17個百分點。相比之下,典型季度的平均漲幅爲3 - 4個百分點,這也解釋了今年標普500指數高達17%的回報率的原因。

Colas用下圖闡述了三季報與美股走勢的關係:

Colas指出,標普500指數成分股公司第二季度每股收益爲53美元。如果這是疫情後的峯值,那麼美國大盤股21倍的市盈率“顯然太高了”。

如果市場預計第三季度收益將超過第二季度,21倍的預期市盈率纔有意義。

“高多少?不需要很多。我們基礎估計是每股收益54美元,這剛好足以表明美國企業的盈利仍在攀升,而且表明目前市場對2021年第四季度和2022年的預期過低。”Colas表示。

預期標普500指數成分股業績將超出預期10個百分點是合理的,因爲即便是在第一季和第二季業績普遍優於預期之後,華爾街分析師也從未全面調整他們對第三季度的預估。

但是這樣的風險很高。

Colas稱:“我們總是不願說某個財報季是有史以來最重要的,但2021年第三季度財報季真的非常、非常重要。”

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