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“北部都會區”橫空出世,大灣區經濟帶迎來新風口
格隆匯 10-10 10:21

本文來自:修煉投資的水晶球,作者:徐馳、張文宇

投資要點

一、

“北部都會區”成立

港深國際創新科技中心促進大灣區共同發展

“北部都會區”成立,港深國際創新科技中心促進大灣區共同發展。10 月 6 日林鄭月娥在今年《施政報告》中宣佈,特區政府將建設香港北部約 300 平方公裏宜居宜業宜遊的都會區,額外開拓約 600 公頃用地作住宅和產業用途,可容納約 250 萬人居住。《施政報告》指出,“北部都會區”是在“一國兩制”框架下首份,在空間觀念及策略思維上跨越港深兩地行政界線的策略和綱領。這標誌着香港徹底融入國家發展大局,跟深圳協同發展,跟大灣區協同發展,共同建設國際創新科技中心。未來五年我國的“人口轉型”:建國後的兩波嬰兒潮“紅利”或已瀕臨“臨界點”。

二、

 “北部都會區”釋放地產供應

產業結構優化下有助於大灣區土地價值重估

有利於香港社會整體穩定

 一直以來,香港貧富差距懸殊,特別是年輕人住房問題看不到希望,是 19年以來香港社會不斷動盪的根源,北部都會區最大的意義在於極大的釋放地產供給,有利於香港年輕人心態及香港社會整體穩定,進而也有助於港股整體風險偏好的回升。同時,北部都會區以科創產業爲主也有助於改變香港產業結構以金融地產爲主的空心化特徵,與深圳的緊密聯繫也有助於粵港澳大灣區土地價值的重估。

三、

“北部都會區”疊加國慶假期期間中美緩和的信號

和美國債務上限問題的解決

我們堅定維持前期堅定看好節後至十月底前

市場整體反彈的判斷

國慶期間,權益市場美股小幅上漲,美國債務上限問題解決疊加 10 月 6日非農數據好於預期,帶動三大股指全線上漲,其他國家主要股指均有所下跌;大宗商品方面,整體價格走強,焦煤,焦炭以及原油漲幅居前,原因國際市場需求預期良好以及短期供給有所短缺;外匯方面,美元指數小幅回落,美元兌人民幣下跌至 6.46%。

四、

投資建議

配置方向上,維持“本輪反彈三重緩和幻象下高低切換”的配置建議,當前時點,以半導體爲代表的科技、醫藥爲代表的權重白馬、券商等相對佔優,其他板塊,如:週期漲價類到明年春節前中期短缺漲價趨勢不變,但短期或受政策影響下情緒波動較大。

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