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《即日市評》恆指季結日反覆造淡 9月累跌5% 第三季累挫逾14%
內地9月官方製造業PMI跌穿榮枯線50遜預期,港股今日反覆回落。美債孳息高企影響科技股,美股昨晚個別發展,納指跌0.2%;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率攀升至1.526釐,美匯指數升至94.32,美股道指期貨最新升237點或0.7%,納指期貨最新升0.7%。今早人民幣中間價下調192點報6.4854兌一美元,內地9月官方製造業PMI降至49.6(市場預期50),上證綜指全日升31點或0.9%收3,568點、深證成指升1.6%、內地創業板指數升2.2%,滬深兩市成交額9,404.4億人民幣。 港股今日造淡。恆指低開169點,早段跌幅曾擴大至316點一度低見24,346點,午後跌幅曾收窄至2點見24,660點,最終全日跌87點或0.4%,收24,575點;國指跌34點或0.4%,收8,726點;恆生科技指數跌77點或1.3%,收6,101點。大市全日成交總額1,151.23億元,滬、深港通南下交易因國慶假期交易安排暫停。 恆本週累升383點或1.6%、國指本週累升121點或1.4%、恆生科指本週累跌58點或0.9%。美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾近日表示,美國通脹上漲可能會較預期更持久,當局將在有需要時將採取行動應對。美國國債息抽高,令資本市場波動,而內地部份地方限電,市場關注內地經濟增速放緩。 恆指9月全月累跌1,303點或5%、國指9月全月累跌457點或5%、恆生科指9月全月累跌506點或7.7%,投資者擔心內地科網平臺、澳門博彩業及本港地產行業面臨監管風險增加。而恆指第三季則累跌4,252點或14.8%、國指第三季累跌1,937點或18.2%、恆生科指第三季累跌2,053點或25.2%。 【大市反覆跌 阿裏有沽壓】 科技股受壓,騰訊(00700.HK)股價跌0.8%,阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)股價跌4.1%報142.2元。花旗發表報告,預計內地需求疲弱情況有可能在今年餘下時間持續,相信會令阿裏巴巴更難達到2022財年收入按年增長30%的指引,預期該公司越來越有可能會下調全年的收入指引。該行將阿裏巴巴目標價由288元下調至232元。 摩根大通發表研究報告指出,中國在宏觀環境的不利因素下,包括對房地產、教育及互聯網等多個行業的監管收緊,將導致長期消費疲弱,估計內地電商業務商品交易總額(GMV)和收入按年呈個位數增長的情況,將成爲未來幾個季度的新常態。該行對阿裏巴巴未來幾季的國內電商業務增長前景更加謹慎,將其目標價由260元降至250元,重申「增持」評級。 【主板市寬弱 內房股抽升】 港股今日主板市寬續弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲17比60(上日爲15比25),下跌股份1,003只(跌幅3.2%);恆指成份股今日22只股份上升,下跌股份36只,升跌比率爲37比60;大市今日錄沽空182億元,佔可沽空股份成交982.7億元的18.5%(上日19.853%)。 內房股造好,融創中國(01918.HK)及富力地產(02777.HK)各升12.8%及17.3%,中國金茂(00817.HK)及合景泰富(01813.HK)各升7.3%及6.6%。美銀證券發表報告表示,內地監管部門約見多間大型銀行,瞭解房地產行業融資情況,併發文要求金融機構按照法治化、市場化原則,配合相關部門和地方政府共同維護房地產市場的平穩健康發展,維護住房消費者合法權益,加快完善住房租賃金融政策體系。 該行指雖然上述文件的政策細節很少,但認爲會議表明政策寬鬆正在進行中,料放寬將從針對最終用戶的抵押貸款配額開始,但對內房開發商貸款配額是否也會放寬仍有待觀察。
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