You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》瑞銀料內房商至2023年中完成去槓桿 估推房產信託助發展出租房屋
瑞銀髮表報告表示,估計中國房地產投資信託基金(C-REITs)至2030年資產規模達到1.2萬億美元,相當於內地2020年住宅物業銷售額的50%。該行料內地將推出房地產投資信託基金因具有多項用途,第一是可將投機性需求從住宅物業轉移到政府更支持的其他資產類別,例如出租房屋及物流物業;第二是房地產投資信託基金可充當內房市場的穩定器;第三是解決開發商推動項目與時間不匹配問題。 該行估計,內房開發商的去槓桿化(三條紅線政策)到2023年中期完成之前,料商業地產(辦公室和購物中心)可能不會被納入中國房地產投資信託基金範圍之內。 瑞銀指中國房地產投資信託基金關鍵問題是資產類別是否由內地政府推動,以及房地產投資信託基金是否可爲住宅開發商提供流動性。基於中央大力提倡發展出租房屋,但租金收益率低一直是一個障礙。該行估計內地出租房屋市場規模爲4,270億元人民幣,料對萬科(02202.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外發展(00688.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)和中駿集團(01966.HK)等企業來說應屬利好。 在物流地產方面,由於大多數物流地產開發商不是住宅開發商,若中國房地產投資信託基金的推出不爲住宅開發商提供資金,但會降低經濟中的物流成本。該行估計符合條件的物流地產投資信託基金市場規模爲1.33萬億元人民幣。該行認爲這對ESR(01821.HK)有利。 瑞銀爲,內地政策目標是自上而下令內房開發商進行去槓桿(三條紅線)。因此料至2023年中在完成去槓桿化之前,該行認爲中國房地產投資信託基金不會推出涉及商業地產,因爲料當局認爲此爲住宅地產開發商提供額外的融資渠道。話雖如此,該行若中國房地產投資信託基金最終將包括商業地產,因爲商場和辦公室有助於刺激消費和改善城市形象,倘若落實,該行認爲這將對商業物業開發商有利,例如華潤置地、龍湖、新城發展(01030.HK)和寶龍地產(01238.HK)。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account