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《大行報告》傑富瑞:集裝箱現貨運價連續第三週漲幅放緩 但料運價仍未見頂
傑富瑞發表亞太區航運業報告,就集裝箱現貨運價連續第三週漲幅放緩,難免令市場關注集裝箱運價是否已見頂,但該行認爲運價仍未見頂,估計在聖誕節的航運窗口關閉(可能是10月底)之前,由於港口擁堵持續惡化,料相關費率將會上漲,估計至今年年底,乾散貨、油輪和航空貨運的收益季節性更強。 該行指,據上海航運交易所的出口集裝箱運價指數(SCFI)按周僅微升0.2%,錄今年下半年以來按周最少漲幅,並連續第三週漲幅放緩;但無論如何,今年第三季以來相關運價指數平均升32%,預計這將導致中遠下個月發佈積極的盈利預測以及日本航運公司盈利指引將會上調。 傑富瑞預計集裝箱現貨價格尚未見頂,監於港口擁堵惡化,預計未來將小幅上漲,更重要的是,儘管運輸時間更長,但仍有足夠的時間將貨物在聖誕節前運往上架。如從亞洲到美國的海上航運總行程時間,從正常的30-35天,現增加到多於70天,其中一些貨物已經轉爲空運。目前洛杉磯港的平均錨泊時間增加至9.5天,有29艘船在錨泊,對比8月底爲7.6天和25艘船。 該行維持對亞太航運業的積極看法,在港口擁堵、疫情令通關嚴格和季節性轉強的運輸量的推動下,估計集裝箱和乾散貨運費正如該行預測推進。該行維持中遠海控(01919.HK)及東方海外(00316.HK)「買入」投資評級,維持看好太平洋航運(02343.HK)。
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