《大行報告》摩通料地產股短期股價將跑輸 在壓測情境下料長實及新世界下行風險最小
摩根大通發表報告表示,外電近日引述消息指中央已要求香港發展商為解決香港的房屋供應問題作出積極貢獻,該行從早前內地教育和澳門博彩等不同行業過去監管不明朗的經驗,令市場將關注本港地產開發商要如何回應緩解房屋問題,估計本港地產股短期股價將跑輸大市。
該行關注本港地產開發商要如何回應緩解房屋問題的不確定性,料將是相關股份近期表現不佳的因素。該行假設在兩個壓力測試的情境下,第一是所有農田均免費捐贈予政府、第二是所有開發商未來開發項目的現金流折現估值為零,料長實集團(01113.HK)和新世界發展(00017.HK)當前股價水平的下行風險最小(由目前股價下行約9%),但料信和置業(00083.HK)和新地(00016.HK)的下行風險達20%,估計恆地(00012.HK)下行風險達37%。
摩通料長實集團也是最有能力通過股票回購,以抵銷每股收益下降的公司。該行亦予新地「增持」評級,因該行料鑑於未來大部分土地可能會分配給公共房屋,指新地具有八年的土地儲備顯然在同業中是一個差異化因素。
就市場關注本港地產開發商要如何回應緩解房屋問題,摩通評估開發商所受到最壞情況下行風險。由於本港住宅樓價自2009年初至今已累升228%,對比同香港貨幣基礎增加313%,鑑於香港聯繫匯率制度下,資本流入主要反映在資產價格上漲之上。政府有限的土地供應加劇情況。為緩解香港房價難以負擔問題,該行認為有四種可能的方法和角度來解決這個問題,第一是聯匯制度、第二價格控制、第三是需求及第四是供應。
摩通料第一項選擇不可行,本港實施的聯繫匯率屬不可動搖,第二項是價格控制,料實行所產生的後果會壞於住宅問題本身,料在本港落實機會較低。該行認為港府增加土地供應是解決本港住屋問題,料政府會從農地轉換著手去處理相關問題。
該行對本港地產開發商壓力測試下,由於資產負債表的實力,料長實集團和信和置業最有能力抵銷開發收益下降的影響。
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