光伏儲能更新，三重需求推動逆變器行業快速增長
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信建投策略，作者：任佳瑋 萬煒 張亦弛
逆變器——光伏及儲能行業中的核心部件
太陽能光伏發電過程中，光伏組件產生的電流為直流電能，需要轉化為交流電才能實現併網，光伏逆變器一方面將直流電變換為交流電，另一方面使用MPPT算法確保系統最大輸出效率，光伏逆變器通常可分為集中式、組串式和微型。儲能逆變器則集成了光伏併網發電、儲能電站的功能，是光伏與儲能兩大市場疊加催生的“交叉產品”。
光伏逆變器：新增裝機與更新需求疊加
由於光伏組件發電想要實現併網必須得經過逆變器的轉化，光伏逆變器隨着光伏裝機量的提升快速上升，從2014年以來，光伏逆變器年出貨量已從39GW增長至2020年的185GW，年均複合增速高達29.6%。此外逆變器的壽命（10-15年）通常短於組件壽命（25-30年），未來將出現較快增長的替換需求，2024年替換需求預計將達到15GW，與光伏新增裝機量共同成為市場推動力。
儲能逆變器：開啟逆變器市場新亮點
不斷推進的減碳政策及風光電的不穩定給儲能帶來巨大需求，其中電化學儲能在儲能市場中佔比較小但提升迅速，2020年全球新增化學儲能裝機量達4.68GW，增長60%，國內新增1.56GW，增長144%。預計2025年我國電化學儲能累計投運規模將達到35-56GW，儲能逆變器作為電化學儲能所必須的直接配套產品，我們預計其將與電化學儲能同步保持約68%的年均複合增長率。
陽光電源——全球逆變器領軍企業
陽光電源長期位居全球逆變器出貨量第二，公司市佔率2020年創下新高達到19%。公司正積極打造“光、風、儲、電、氫”五位一體戰略，通過增發募投項目“年產100GW新能源發電裝備製造基地項目”，建成投產後公司光伏逆變器、風電變流器、儲能逆變器產品產能將分別新增70GW、15GW、15GW，較現有產能有大幅度提升。
錦浪科技——專注於組串式逆變器
錦浪科技主要產品為組串式逆變器，2020年全球市場份額4.8%，排名第六，在中國廠商中位居第四。近年來公司海外地區帶來的銷售收入持續高於境內，海外銷售佔比在60%左右，而海外逆變器毛利率在40%以上，拉高了公司盈利能力。公司目前正積極擴產，年內將新增77萬台逆變器產能。
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