《大行報告》美銀證券:內房股銷售弱兼面臨融資挑戰 建議避開富力(02777.HK)及碧桂園(02007.HK)
美銀證券發表報告表示,據國統局數據內地今年8月新屋銷量及銷售額按年各跌18%及20%,疲弱表現符合該行預預期,大型內房發展商表現如該行原預期8月合約銷售平均按年下跌21%預測,相信內地樓市持續走弱,內地28個城市今年9月首兩週一手房銷售量按年下跌17%,料發展商流動性損及買家情緒。
該行指內房行業一場完美風暴(perfect storm)或正在醞釀,除了內房實體市場疲軟外,發展商還面臨多重融資挑戰,第一是內地十幾個重點城市的抵押貸款額度緊張,從而傷害開發商的現金收款;第二是由於近期槓桿率較高的開發商面臨融資壓力,債券市場準入減少;第三是融資收緊以及更高的違約風險,高收益借款人的融資利率普遍較高。
美銀證券表示,雖然內地樓市波動,近期予投資級別的開發商,如中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)的債券收益率仍處於低位。雖然該行看到了內房行業業的價值,但料波動性可能會繼續。該行繼續看好中國海外、華潤置地和龍湖(00960.HK)等投資級開發商,料相關公司有能力更好地度過行業動盪期,並建議避開槓杆率較高的發展商,如富力(02777.HK);或偏遠城市項目較多的發展商,如碧桂園(02007.HK)。
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