《大行報告》海通國際料內地科網股尚未見底籲維持審慎 未來兩至三季更多潛在監管政策出臺
海通國際發表研究報告,指過去三週(8月23日至9月10日)金瑞基金滬深中國網路ETF(KWEB)自8月19日之年內低位累計反彈18%,網絡巨擘如阿裏(BABA.US)、美團(03690.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)及百度(BIDU.US)亦分別自年內低位反彈6%、34%、16%及19%。即使股價趨升,估值吸引下市場收集興趣增加(KWEB仍較年內高位累跌約50%),該行仍建議對內地互聯網板塊維持審慎態度。
報告稱,近期收到許多投資者提出應否趁內地互聯網板塊反彈乘勢追入的查詢,有些投資者疑問監管行動是否已告一段落,認爲宏觀經濟近期壓力或放緩監管措施出臺步伐。不過,該行認爲,近期科網升浪源於指數再平衡而不是由基本面驅動,建議對潛在進一步監管風險保持審慎,或損害投資情緒以至現時估值框架的長期展望。
海通國際表示,即使KWEB自今年高位累跌約50%,緩衝區仍不足以紓緩潛在風險。KWEB仍處於2020年初相若水平,當時板塊面對政策幹擾較少。據《彭博通訊社》數據,以市銷率計,該行所選取龍頭科網平臺逾半估值仍高於或相當於2020年初水平。
報告解釋,監管風險尚未結束,現時只是經歷了一半,料未來兩至三季有更多監管政策出臺,並擴展至更多縱向領域及業務分支。例如近期工信部要求企業推動解決即時通信屏蔽網址鏈接等問題,涉及所有主要科網平臺及流動終端生產商,包括阿裏、騰訊、字節跳動、百度、網易(NTES.US)、MOMO(MOMO.US);華爲及小米(01810.HK),須於9月17日或之前完成,否則面對法律法規行動。
海通國際稱,相較以往,監管行動將會更精準及細化,或損害投資情緒及估值基礎一些重要指標,繼而壓抑股價。以往多輪互聯網監管,由於缺失執行上的細節,往往無疾而終。倘若以教育板塊爲例,則與此輪監管有所不同。許多投資者向該行查詢政府政策的由來,實可追溯至去年11月,該行稱,此舉旨在限制互聯網平臺的盈利能力及減少社會運作成本,以及以往較少提及到的,即透過減少中間人以提升效率及節省成本;因爲互聯網平臺本身已成爲最大中間人,而整個社會的運作成本沒有相應減少。該行稱,個別互聯網平臺已賺取社會財富最大部分,明顯不是政府所樂見。
因此,報告稱,政府近期監管的主要目的是減少社會成本,意味管制或限制中介互聯網平臺的盈利能力。即使部分監管舉措被認爲是過度嚴苛,未來或有機會放寬,但考慮市場情緒,預期及利淡因素後,該行認爲短期內地科網股仍有下行風險。
海通國際補充,未來兩至三季內地科網股料仍迎來更多制肘,例如更嚴格的提成機制,或要降低未來一些業務的利潤率,特別是未受收緊的縱向業務如電商。在這情況下,即使近期科網股反彈,該行建議投資者在考慮撈底H股或在美上市中資科網股時保持審慎,因似乎尚未見底。
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