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蘋果股價上漲的原因,你找到了嗎?
uSMART盈立智投 08-31 22:19

蘋果(AAPL.US)的市盈率達29.7倍,遠高於市場和行業平均估值水平。儘管估值很高,蘋果仍然是備受投資者青睞的投資標的。

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顯然,蘋果在現金流、營運資金管理、盈利能力,尤其是回報率等多方面表現出色。蘋果最近公佈的收益增長超過了大多數公司,表現相對不錯。 投資者認爲這種強勁的盈利表現將持續下去。

蘋果是否有足夠的增長空間?

蘋果的高市盈率在強勁增長的公司中並不罕見,重要的是,該公司的表現要比市場好得多。

蘋果去年收益增長率高達55%,最近三年的每股收益增長了85%。

展望未來,分析師估計,未來三年蘋果每年將實現6.0%的增長。 與此同時,市場其他公司預計將以每年12%的速度增長,明顯更具吸引力。

從這個角度來看,相對於市場平均估值,蘋果的市盈率太高了。

Simply Wall St 分析師Goran Damchevski 將銷售額和三種利潤指標與市場估值進行了比較。在一個健康的市場環境中,投資者可以預期市場會適當調整增長,這樣的圖表會產生相對一致的水平線。

可以看到,2018年之後,市場對蘋果的利潤不再那麼嚴格。 與其他指標相比,市場估值與銷售額的比率出現了偏差。對此,有人認爲,銷售增長更多地與股價保持同步,其次是收益增長。

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我們還可以注意到,市場會定期進行修正。 預測未來的時間跨度越長,修正就變得越不穩定。

因此,Damchevski提醒投資者,如果有興趣購買蘋果股票,長期持有可能是避免一些波動的更好策略。

結論

蘋果股票目前比市場和行業平均估值水平更貴。

營收增長似乎跟上了股價的上漲步伐,然而,公司的利潤增長率落後於股價。

需要明確的是,蘋果的增長速度仍然很快,但市場對現金流的要求似乎降低了。

蘋果仍然是一家表現無可挑剔的穩健公司,但其股票開始顯示出未來短期波動的跡象,投資者可能需要考慮採用長期持有的策略來抵消這一影響。

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