一文綜合券商於中行(03988.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
中國銀行(03988.HK)今早股價靠穩,最新報2.7元無起跌。券商普遍認為中行上半年業績強勁,但基於新冠疫情反覆下,料令內地今年下半年宏觀經濟將轉弱,關注第三季業績或會轉弱。中行昨收市後公布今年中期業績,純利按年增長11.8%至1,128.13億元人民幣,高於本網早前綜合4間券商預測上限。每股盈利0.36元人民幣,不派中期息。期內營業收入按年增長6%,成本收入比升至24.06%。非利息收入按年增長15%至940.82億元人民幣。期內資產減值損失529.45億元人民幣,少於去年同期的664.84億元人民幣。
中行利息淨收入按年增長1.6%至2,087.73億元人民幣,淨息差按年收窄至1.76%。6月底止核心一級資本充足率10.8%,低於去年底的11.28%。不良貸款率1.3%,低於去年底的1.46%。不良貸款總額2,003.48億元人民幣,少於去年底的2,072.73億元人民幣。
【淨息差收窄 憂短期前景】
摩根大通指中行第二季業績為輕微遜預期。首先其盈利增長落後國有銀行,僅略勝於工行(01398.HK)。更重要的是撥備前經營溢利增長為國有銀行中最慢。縱使交易收入因去年低基數表現強勁,但撥備前經營溢利增長落後,受淨息差收窄及高於預期的經營開支拖累,海外業務亦持續拖累業績。該行料中行股價短期下跌,但維持「增持」評級及3.6元目標價。
美銀證券表示,基於對宏觀經濟展望轉弱,下調對中行明年及2023年盈利預測2%至7%,目標價亦由3.85元降至3.75元。因應盈利增長強勁、業務組合更多元及估值便宜,維持對其「買入」投資評級。該行亦指,中行次季費用收入按年升12%,代理費用取得26%按年增長,主要來自財富管理業務,亦顯示中行的有關業務在國有銀行中的領導地位。
摩根士丹利指出,中行預期在策略性行業、綠色發展及工業升級提供更多信貸支援,並優化信貸組合轉向至中至長期貸款,有利資產回報。該行亦指,中行次季存款增長健康,存款組合亦改善,意味零售銀行業務堅韌。中行次季存款增長1.8%,上半年存款增長8%,期內活期存款佔比按年升2.2個百分點至49.4%。負面因素方面,中行管理層指淨息差壓力來自信貸再定價及海外資產回報下跌,連同成本收入比按年上升,導致次季撥備前經營溢利受壓。該行維持對中行「增持」評級及目標價4.3元。
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本網最新綜合5間券商對中行投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價((港元)
摩根士丹利│增持│4.3元
瑞銀│買入│3.9元
匯豐環球研究│買入│3.9元
美銀證券│買入│3.85元->3.75元
摩根大通│增持│3.6元
券商│觀點
摩根士丹利│撥備前經營溢利稍弱
瑞銀│淨息差收窄拖累收入增長遜同業
匯豐環球研究│上半年業績略為正面
美銀證券│次季費用收入強勁及純利表現理想
摩根大通│撥備前經營溢利增長遜預期
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