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《大行報告》中金下調騰訊(00700.HK)目標價至610元 料監管壓力持續存在
阿思達克 08-20 14:14
中金發表報告,指騰訊(00700.HK)第二季收入按年增長20%至1,383億元人民幣(下同),符合市場預期。非通用準則淨利潤按年增長13%至340億元,高於一致預期3.7%,主要因毛利率高於預期,營銷費用率低於預期。 中金指,期內騰訊手遊收入增速有所下滑,按年增長13%至408億元,其中海外遊戲表現亮眼,收入以一致匯率計算按年增長37%至108億元。展望全年,由於新作推遲上線等影響,該行預計手遊業務按年增速13%。 廣告方面,受益於小程序廣告,微信朋友圈廣告庫存的增加以及易車網廣告收入的合併,2021廣告按年增長23%至228億元。短期受教育政策影響及用戶隱私保護升級,預計全年廣告收入按年增速將下滑至19%。另報告稱,企業服務受益於企業微信,騰訊會議和雲計算等全生態業務矩陣的打造,將持續成為公司未來重要的增長引擎之一。 中金料騰訊面對監管壓力持續存在,但毋須過度憂慮。未成年人防沉迷遊戲系統持續升級,預計騰訊未來將著力於提升內容質量。而廣告用戶數據隱私監管以及教育行業「雙減」政策短期將對廣告業務帶來負面影響。 稅率方面,騰訊重點軟件企業認證暫時未受影響,中金預計2021年有效稅率將大致維持2020年水平。 報告稱,騰訊是互聯網平台公司中率先於2018年經歷過監管環境劇變考驗的公司,於2019年首個提出科技向善為使命的公司,首期投入500億元設立「可持續社會價值事業部」並追加投資500億元啟動「共同富裕專項計」的公司,中金相信騰訊在面對平台公司社會責任,用數字化手段響應國家戰略上,都有較早的思考和佈局,長期業務上商業模式實質受動搖的可能性比較小。 中金預期,騰訊受監管及加大對關鍵業務的投入影響,下調2022年盈利預測3%。由於第二季淨利潤超預期,維持2021年盈利預測不變。儘管公司面對著一些短期難以落地的風險,但由歷史估值來看,騰訊目前已經在中等偏低的位置,為市場上各種擔憂提供了相對從容的緩衝,後續公司有望通過業務和收入上的韌性,逐步緩解市場的擔憂。維持「中性」評級,目標價降低11%至610港元。
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