《大行報告》匯豐研究下調騰訊(00700.HK)目標價至700元 料稅率及網遊業務影響短期盈利
匯豐研究發表報告指,相信在監管環境轉變下騰訊控股(00700.HK)正為長遠增長鋪路,該行認為監管屬全球大趨勢,並有機會在未來6至18個月收緊,或影響公司短期盈利,不過相信只要公司緊隨其3至5年策略,在審慎變現下,其定位相對較理想。
報告補充,騰訊次季收入升20%、經調整溢利升13%,均符該行預測。季內金融科技及企業服務收入升40%,留意到雲收入增長加快,而支付日活躍用戶、平均交易量及企業支付貢獻均有增加,在小程序交易量方面更按年翻倍。於社交及其他廣告收入方面,期內按年升28%,留意到視頻廣告庫存貢獻近半的朋友圈收入。
該行留意到,公司的再投資計劃開始見到成果,其中通訊及生產力SaaS均有好的用戶及用量增長,而視頻號日活躍用戶、使用時長及內容創作者數目均向好,相信長遠將可變現。另外在海外遊戲業務勢頭亦向上,期內貢獻25%的線上遊戲收入,按年增長29%至108億元人民幣,而公司成功滲透任天堂Switch,加上《Valorant》的成功亦支持公司在PC、手遊及遊戲機市場的實力。匯豐研究指出,基於規則及業務模式不一,騰訊與其他主要平台合作會產生問題,故開放生態系統予其他平台非優先工作,往後公司將聚焦於幫助中小企及商家。
該行指出在稅率方面,符國家主要軟件企業的子公司數目減少,料今年有效稅率將按年升3個百分點,而在遊戲業務方面,雖然公司提倡限制青少年人遊戲時間及消費,但料影響有限,因為16歲及12歲以下玩家僅貢獻騰訊內地遊戲收入的2.6%及0.3%。在廣告業務方面,第三季教育行業廣告開支減少及開機廣告監管的影響將全面反映,料宏觀環境轉差亦不利市場氣氛,將2021-23年公司盈利預測削7%至8%,目標價由750元降至700元,維持「買入」評級。(el/s) ~
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