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《大行報告》匯豐研究料本港下半年住宅樓價升幅放緩 發展商看好新地及信置
匯豐研究發表的報告指,本港樓價8月份創新高,今年以來升約8.6%,認為樓價的方向及勢頭大致與該行一致。展望將來,該行料樓價升勢持續,不過勢頭於下半年或會減慢,料全年樓價將升9%(今年上半年升幅為7%),2022年樓價將再升5-10%。該行認為發展商似乎會加快推盤,而受惠樓價升勢利潤亦將擴大。新鴻基地產(00016.HK)及信和置業(00083.HK)料將成主要受益者,因為兩家公司短期可售資源最多。 該行認為本地樓價受經濟復甦強勁所支撐,次季經濟顯著反彈帶動市場氣氛及潛在買家重現,而今年8月按息低見1.4%,低息亦利好置業需求。在參考近期政府的賣地計劃後,料短期單位進一步減少亦有助支撐樓價。 該行估計短期內增加一手住宅項目推出,將成發展商的股價催化劑,其中包括新地Wetland Seasons Bay(1,224伙)、信置南岸第2期-揚海(600伙)及恆基地產(00012.HK)The Henley III(404伙)。 在本地地產股中,該行選股優先次序分別為寫字樓、住宅及零售,認為在風險回報來看寫字樓收租股相對開發商更吸引,主要因為隨著租賃需求回歸,最差的時間似乎已過去,較傾向選擇新加坡上市的置地及太古地產(01972.HK)。在開發商方面,該行認為基本面仍然強勁,不過驚喜不大。零售方面,該行料未來兩年將進入上行週期,不過零售收租股相對不吸引,很多正面因素已反映。
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