美銀：基本面撐不起2000億市值 Moderna
美國銀行(Bank of America)週二在一份報告中表示，Moderna(MRNA.US)今年迄今的漲幅超過360%，但可能會大幅下跌，因爲該公司近2000億美元的市值“從基本面來看是不合理的”。該行重申了115美元的目標價，這意味着較週二收盤價456.76美元/股相比，有75%的下行空間。
報告稱，Moderna要想證明自己已成爲像默沙東(MRK.US)和施貴寶(BMY.US)等已有100多年曆史的製藥巨頭，還有很多事情要做。“要證明2000億美元的估值是合理的，就必須服從以下假設:1.從2022年至2038年，每年輸出10億至15億劑COVID-19疫苗;2.所有在研藥物的成功上市概率爲100%，總銷售額峯值達到300億美元，”美國銀行解釋道。
雖然美國銀行對Moderna運用mRNA技術開發其療法持積極態度，但它認爲上述假設“不可能成立”。Moderna股價飆升，主要原因在於投資者認爲，該公司旗下的COVID-19疫苗需求將在未來幾年保持強勁。這種需求已經體現在其收益表中。Moderna第二季財報業績顯示，收入增長6516%，超過70億美元。
但美國銀行與傳染病專家討論後，對COVID-19疫苗的長期需求持懷疑態度。該機構給出以下5個原因顯示COVID-19疫苗長期需求可能減弱:
1.病毒突破性感染的病例是罕見的，但當它們發生時，絕大多數造成的病症都是輕微至中度的。
2.雖然目前的COVID-19疫苗仍能提供強有力的感染保護，但依舊不能阻止疫情造成的嚴重後果，這是推動社交封鎖的主要原因。
3.正常暴露於新的病毒變種，有機會增強機體免疫保護。
4.常規性注射加強針疫苗並不是完全合理的，除了對部分有免疫缺陷人羣注射。
5.越來越多的證據表明，新的病毒變種並不更具致病性。
Moderna並不是唯一一家因新冠疫苗的成功研發而大幅上漲的股票。今年以來，BioNTech(BNTX.US)股價上漲了415%，目前市值超過1000億美元。
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