《大行報告》匯豐研究升東航(00670.HK)及國航(00753.HK)評級至「買入」 調整三大航空股目標價
匯豐研究發表報告指,內地航空股因新冠疫情反彈再度下挫,三大國營航空股自近期高位累跌25%至28%,以市賬率計估值跌至接近去年低位。參考過去逾十年的行業周期,該行有信心,當跌至這水平時,航空股將對進一步負面消息「免疫」,焦點應轉移至明年下半年起至2023年的復甦。
報告稱,考慮短期催化劑及中長期可見引擎,對行業更趨樂觀。與過去例子相若,匯豐研究預期這些周期股在內地有效控制疫情及本地出行復甦後,將急劇反彈。實際上,在2021年4月,三大航空股境內客運收益公里數升至2019年水平的115%。中長期而言,料三大航空股有力擴大市佔,不僅是境內航程,料亦能擴大國際航線市佔。
匯豐研究續稱,三大航空股資本充裕,而且境內客運及貨運敞口龐大,容許它們維持正現金流。另一邊廂,許多境內及國際同業正艱苦求存,亦縮減經營規模以應對更長時間的下行。即使假設至2023年國際出行復甦僅及2019年水平的50%,該行料三大航空股可產生雙位數股本回報率。
報告擴大三大航空股今年虧損預測,由原先120億元人民幣,擴大至蝕240億元人民幣,較市場預測虧損高出近兩倍。這反映該行對國際航線的審慎看法,境內客量及收益率低迷,以及強勁貨運部分抵銷成本壓力。該行相信市場已放眼至2023年,料境內客量可達至2019年水平,國際客量可達2019年50%。不過,為反映本地旅客收益率預測上調,料三大航空股2023年EBIT利潤率達13%,股本回報率達12%。
匯豐研究補充,三大航空股已準備好疫情後復甦,重申南航(01055.HK)H股「買入」評級,目標價由6.8元降至6.2元;上調東航(00670.HK)及國航(00753.HK)H股評級,由「持有」升至「買入」,東航H股目標價由4.1元升至4.5元,國航H股目標價由5.4元升至6.3元。
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