《業績前瞻》券商料吉利(00175.HK)中期多賺逾15% 關注毛利率及推新車型進展
吉利汽車(00175.HK)將於下週三(18日)公佈截至6月底止中期業績,受惠上半年總銷量爲63.02萬部按年增長約19%,但期內亦受到汽車晶片短缺所影響,本網綜合4間券商預測,吉利2021年上半年純利預測介乎23億至36.66億元人民幣,按年增加0.13%至59.6%。中位數26.5億元人民幣,按年15.4%。
受芯片短缺所拖累下,市場將關注吉利期內毛利率表現,綜合3間券商預測,吉利2021年上半年毛利率料介乎14.6%至17.2%,較2020年同期17.1%,按下跌1至2.5個百分點。隨着吉利下半年推出繽瑞、CMA架構的星越S、星越L、繽越、全新帝豪等一系列車型上市、及預期付極氪001車型於10月開始交付,投資者將關注公司推出新車型進展及毛利率指引。
【受缺芯影響 關注毛利率】
野村料吉利今年上半年純利28億元人民幣,按年升22%,基於銷量按年升19%、平均售價按年升8%及毛利率按年跌1%計算。該行指,由於原材料價格壓力及晶片短缺問題,吉利集中透過改善產品組合而非市佔率以應付盈利率下行。公司自首季淘汰低端的遠景轎車,並在次季減少遠景SUV的生產,並增加高端新車款,包括星瑞、星越、領克及極氪,應能推動平均售價及協助緩減盈利率壓力。
花旗預計吉利中期純利介乎23億至27億元人民幣,主要因爲銷售組合改善及銷量增加導致上半年毛利率較去年下半年改善。該行亦指,吉利有效的成本控制抵銷原材料價格上升,代理經營溢利率亦因較佳的零售價格改動而改善。
海通國際指出,吉利旗下帝豪及遠景品牌的銷售收入貢獻比例減,有利吉利中期毛利率。但同時面對原材料價格上漲、增加代理商傭金及攤銷成本增加。總體預計吉利中期毛利率爲15.5%,較去年下半年的15.3%輕微改善,經營溢利率則爲4.7%,低於去年下半年的5.2%。
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本網綜合4間券商預測,吉利2021年上半年純利預測介乎23億至36.66億元人民幣,按年增加0.13%至59.6%。中位數26.5億元人民幣,按年15.4%。
券商│2021年中期純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞信│30億元│+30.6%
野村│28億元│+21.9%
海通國際│23.6億元│+2.7%
花旗│23億至27億元│+0.13%至17.5%
吉利2020年上半年純利22.97億元人民幣計算
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綜合3間券商預測,吉利2021年上半年毛利率料介乎14.6%至17.2%,較2020年同期17.1%,按下跌1至2.5個百分點。
券商│2021年中期毛利率預測│按年變化
野村│16.1%│-1個百分點
海通國際│15.5%│-1.6百分點
建銀國際│14.6%│-2.5百分點
吉利2020年上半年同期毛利率17.1%計算。
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