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《大行報告》摩通降美團(03690.HK)目標價至300元 下調中概科網股目標價 首選京東、網易
摩根大通發表研究報告,指過去三個月該行所覆蓋內地互聯網股股價累跌約21%,跑輸同期MSCI中國指數14%。該行將行業向下重評較大程度歸咎於監管環境收緊週期,以及較小程度歸咎於市場對少部分縱向板塊盈利弱勢的憂慮。 在轉變中的監管及經營環境,該行認爲,具下列元素的科網股下半年可跑贏大市,包括較低監管風險,或甚至受惠於監管改變;有清晰競爭定位;在上遊行業風險較低;以及有望發出盈喜的公司。該行選股喜好次序,依次爲京東(JD.US)→網易(NTES.US)→美團(03690.HK)→騰訊(00700.HK)→阿裏(BABA.US)→金山雲(KC.US)→嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)。該行亦將貝殼找房(BEKE.US)及騰訊音樂(TME.US)投資評級由「增持」降至「中性」。該行並下調美團目標價,由400元降至300元,評級「增持」。 摩通表示,監管環境收緊尚未結束,下一個焦點在數據保安及數碼內容經營。現時許多政策仍屆諮詢階段,未來數季均有望落實。料受影響板塊包括內容及電商、目標廣告,以及串流等。此外,對青少年保護的監管主題料更明顯。 報告有系統地下調初期階段科網業務的估值基礎,包括所有上市營運商的社區團購業務等,以反映週期性及結構性風險。由於基本面展望改變,該行修訂科網股財務預測,反映廣告經營商面對行業縱向及監管逆風;在社區團購價格監管較預期嚴,致電商盈測向下調整情況料已見底;旅遊服務商料受累於出行限制收緊;串流競爭持續激烈,惟整體行業放緩,致上市營運商毛利率受壓。該行並下調多家美國上市中概科網股目標價,詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
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