《大行報告》摩通:內房政策轉清晰 看好具防守性發展商
摩通發表研究報告,指過去一週內地房地產市場有多個消息,其中北京、杭州、惠州對買樓有新的要求;無錫推出第二輪的集中土地拍賣;中國恆大(03333.HK)的情況亦有更新。
該行相信中央在房地產問題上,都是以「穩房價,穩地價,穩預期」爲長遠目標,對土地拍賣則以「限房價,限地價,競品質」爲短期主調,並可能擴至全國。
該行表示,發展商信貸風險目前正有序下降,市場關注點亦轉往基本面,利潤率料會於今年見底,並於明年以後復甦。目前房價似乎正朝每年單位數幅度增長,而土地價格較大機會向下。一二手樓價差可能趨向收窄,而去化率應回覆正常化。
該行認爲,政策前景變得更清晰,較偏好具防守性發展商。雖然投資者短期料維持審慎的看法,但亦不能忽視其盈利可見性高的特質,特別是有租金收入的企業,未來2至3年似乎可有雙位數年複合增長率,看好龍湖集團(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、融創中國(01918.HK)、寶龍地產(01238.HK)、世茂集團(00813.HK)、中駿集團控股(01966.HK)。
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